In Support of a Physics-Based Energy Transition Planning: Sowing Our Future Energy Needs

Attaining the objectives set by the COP21 Paris agreement on climate involves not only phasing out fossil fuels from the world’s energy mix but also replacing the energy services they provide with renewable energy and better efficiency, approximately by the mid-twenty-first century. A recent controversy on the viability of 100% renewable energy systems (Jacobson et al. in Proc Natl Acad Sci 112:15060–15065; Clack et al. in PNAS 114:6722–6727) brought forward the question of whether we can actually rely on renewable energy to replace conventional fossil resources. Focusing on the physical factors involved may offer us a currently underutilized method to reduce controversy showing that, in practical terms, the two parties are closer than immediately apparent. A physical perspective suggests that accelerated deployment of renewable energy sources makes attaining the Paris objectives feasible, although not without a major effort. A policy directed to increase capital investments in an early and fast expansion of the renewable energy and storage infrastructure is a crucial requirement for this purpose.