Power system planning in the energy transition era: the case of Vietnam's power development plan 8

This review examines Vietnam's eighth Power Development Plan (PDP8), analyzing how it reveals tensions between traditional energy planning concepts and emerging realities. PDP8 aimed to balance renewable energy and natural gas priorities amidst Vietnam's rapidly changing energy landscape. The planning process struggled to incorporate uncertainties like technology cost declines and global energy crises. Although following a conventional optimization approach, PDP8 underwent repeated delays and pivots, pointing to misalignment between rational planning ideals and implementation constraints. The case study highlights the limitations of ‘plan to build’ methods focused on rigid engineering blueprints. Instead, Vietnam's energy transition requires strategic approaches that embrace flexibility and scenario analysis. Based on years of participative observation, two interview surveys, and extensive corpus analysis, the review traces PDP8's evolution towards more open-ended strategies. While still detailing infrastructure projects, PDP8 defines adaptive implementation mechanisms and conditional goals dependent on external finance. This shift from project lists to navigational thinking illustrates the need for energy planning to incorporate uncertainty and maintain the capacity to adjust. PDP8 represents a transitional compromise between traditional ten-year planning and emerging ‘plan to drive’ concepts focused on navigating change with annual updates to the Plan.Power development planning agencies must expect moving goalposts as high-level policymakers periodically adopt more ambitious greenhouse gas emission goals.The relevance of traditional ‘plan to build’ energy planning approaches, which focus on finding cost-minimizing blueprints for long-term power system expansion, is limited by policy shifts, rapid technological change, and market volatility.Adaptive ‘plan to drive’ approaches focus on achieving long-term goals while maintaining the ability to adjust course as circumstances change. These approaches use conditional objectives and annual plan updates.International partnerships could facilitate ambitious energy transitions in emerging economies but complicate it by involving a broader range of stakeholders, including foreign affairs, finance, and economic development administrations.