IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/anresc/v65y2020i2d10.1007_s00168-020-00992-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An annual estimate of spatially disaggregated populations: Spain, 1900–2011

Author

Listed:
  • Rafael González-Val

    (Universidad de Zaragoza
    Universitat de Barcelona)

  • Javier Silvestre

    (Universidad de Zaragoza)

Abstract

Long-term population estimates are usually based on decennial (or roughly decennial), census-type data, especially those that go beyond the aggregate or national level. The lack of annual population datasets, however, restricts the range of analysis and therefore our knowledge of populations’ behaviour over time. This paper contributes to this scant literature by providing two new long-term, annually and spatially disaggregated population estimates for Spain, a key case study. We use a set of official sources and propose a straightforward method to estimate Spanish annual populations at two levels of spatial disaggregation, the provinces (NUTS III) and their capital cities (a selection of LAU II/NUTS V), between 1900 and 2011. For the cities, our estimates account for changes in boundaries. Our proposed method is especially suitable for countries with a lack of long-term, systematic, historical migration statistics, a common issue. To test the robustness of our estimates, some comparisons are made with previous more aggregated-level or decennial census-based estimates, and a preliminary analysis of the evolution of disaggregated Spanish population is presented.

Suggested Citation

  • Rafael González-Val & Javier Silvestre, 2020. "An annual estimate of spatially disaggregated populations: Spain, 1900–2011," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 65(2), pages 491-508, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:anresc:v:65:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1007_s00168-020-00992-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s00168-020-00992-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00168-020-00992-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00168-020-00992-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Luis Lanaspa & Fernando Pueyo & Fernando Sanz, 2003. "The Evolution of Spanish Urban Structure during the Twentieth Century," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 40(3), pages 567-580, March.
    2. Elisenda Paluzie & Jordi Pons & Javier Silvestre & Daniel Tirado, 2009. "Migrants and market potential in Spain over the twentieth century: a test of the new economic geography," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 243-265, December.
    3. Rafael González-Val & Luis Lanaspa & Fernando Sanz-Gracia, 2014. "New Evidence on Gibrat’s Law for Cities," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 51(1), pages 93-115, January.
    4. Bosker, Maarten & Brakman, Steven & Garretsen, Harry & Schramm, Marc, 2008. "A century of shocks: The evolution of the German city size distribution 1925-1999," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 330-347, July.
    5. Goerlich Gisbert Francisco J. & Mas Ivars Matilde (ed.), 2006. "La localización de la población española sobre el territorio. Un siglo de cambios: un estudio basado en series homogéneas (1900-2001)," Books, Fundacion BBVA / BBVA Foundation, number 201154, October.
    6. Stijn Ronsse & Samuel Standaert, 2017. "Combining growth and level data: An estimation of the population of Belgian municipalities between 1880 and 1970," Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(4), pages 218-226, October.
    7. Xavier Gabaix & Rustam Ibragimov, 2011. "Rank - 1 / 2: A Simple Way to Improve the OLS Estimation of Tail Exponents," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 24-39, January.
    8. Gabaix, Xavier & Ioannides, Yannis M., 2004. "The evolution of city size distributions," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: J. V. Henderson & J. F. Thisse (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 53, pages 2341-2378, Elsevier.
    9. María Ayuda & Fernando Collantes & Vicente Pinilla, 2010. "From locational fundamentals to increasing returns: the spatial concentration of population in Spain, 1787–2000," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 25-50, March.
    10. Beltrán Tapia, Francisco J. & Díez-Minguela, Alfonso & Martinez-Galarraga, Julio, 2018. "Tracing the Evolution of Agglomeration Economies: Spain, 1860–1991," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 78(1), pages 81-117, March.
    11. Sharma, Shalini, 2003. "Persistence and stability in city growth," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 300-320, March.
    12. María Ayuda & Fernando Collantes & Vicente Pinilla, 2010. "Long-run regional population disparities in Europe during modern economic growth: a case study of Spain," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 44(2), pages 273-295, April.
    13. Silvestre, Javier, 2005. "Internal migrations in Spain, 1877–1930," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(2), pages 233-265, August.
    14. Garcia-López, Miquel-Ángel & Holl, Adelheid & Viladecans-Marsal, Elisabet, 2015. "Suburbanization and highways in Spain when the Romans and the Bourbons still shape its cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 52-67.
    15. Rafael González-Val & Daniel A. Tirado-Fabregat & Elisabet Viladecans-Marsal, 2017. "Market potential and city growth: Spain 1860–1960," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 11(1), pages 31-61, January.
    16. Leandro Prados de la Escosura, 2017. "Spanish Economic Growth, 1850–2015," Palgrave Studies in Economic History, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-3-319-58042-5, December.
    17. P. C. Cheshire & E. S. Mills (ed.), 1999. "Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 3, number 3.
    18. Ian N. Gregory & Jordi Marti‐Henneberg & Francisco J. Tapiador, 2010. "Modelling long‐term pan‐European population change from 1870 to 2000 by using geographical information systems," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 173(1), pages 31-50, January.
    19. J. V. Henderson & J. F. Thisse (ed.), 2004. "Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 4, number 4.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ronan Lyons & Elisa Maria Tirindelli, 2022. "The Rise & Fall of Urban Concentration in Britain: Zipf, Gibrat and Gini across two centuries," Trinity Economics Papers tep0522, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rafael González-Val & Daniel A. Tirado-Fabregat & Elisabet Viladecans-Marsal, 2017. "Market potential and city growth: Spain 1860–1960," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 11(1), pages 31-61, January.
    2. Beltrán Tapia, Francisco J. & Díez-Minguela, Alfonso & Martinez-Galarraga, Julio, 2018. "Tracing the Evolution of Agglomeration Economies: Spain, 1860–1991," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 78(1), pages 81-117, March.
    3. Rafael González-Val, 2021. "The Spanish spatial city size distribution," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 48(6), pages 1609-1631, July.
    4. Rafael González-Val & Daniel A. Tirado-Fabregat & Elisabet Viladecans-Marsal, 2017. "Market potential and city growth: Spain 1860–1960," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 11(1), pages 31-61, January.
    5. Ronan Lyons & Elisa Maria Tirindelli, 2022. "The Rise & Fall of Urban Concentration in Britain: Zipf, Gibrat and Gini across two centuries," Trinity Economics Papers tep0522, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    6. Ramos, Arturo & Sanz-Gracia, Fernando & González-Val, Rafael, 2013. "A new framework for the US city size distribution: Empirical evidence and theory," MPRA Paper 52190, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Zhihong Chen & Shihe Fu & Dayong Zhang, 2013. "Searching for the Parallel Growth of Cities in China," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 50(10), pages 2118-2135, August.
    8. Julio Martinez-Galarraga & Elisenda Paluzie & Jordi Pons & Javier Silvestre & Daniel A. Tirado, 2021. "New economic geography and economic history: a survey of recent contributions through the lens of the Spanish industrialization process," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 15(3), pages 719-751, September.
    9. repec:wyi:journl:002175 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Aurélie Lalanne & Martin Zumpe, 2020. "Time-Series Based Empirical Assessment of Random Urban Growth: New Evidence from France," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 18(4), pages 911-926, December.
    11. Chen, Zhihong & Fu, Shihe & Zhang, Dayong, 2010. "Searching for the parallel growth of cities," MPRA Paper 21528, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Rafael Gonz�lez-Val & Luis Lanaspa, 2016. "Patterns in US Urban Growth, 1790-2000," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(2), pages 289-309, February.
    13. Rafael González-Val & Marcos Sanso-Navarro, 2010. "Gibrat’s law for countries," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 23(4), pages 1371-1389, September.
    14. Rafael González-Val & Arturo Ramos-Gutiérrez & Fernando Sanz-Gracia, 2011. "Size Distributions for All Cities: Lognormal and q-exponential functions," ERSA conference papers ersa11p554, European Regional Science Association.
    15. Daniel ARRIBAS-BEL & Fernando SANZ GRACIA & Domingo P. XIMENEZ-DE-EMBUN, 2012. "Kangaroos, Cities And Space: A First Approach To The Australian Urban System," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 36, pages 165-187.
    16. repec:asg:wpaper:1011 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Michel DIMOU & Alexandra SCHAFFAR & Zhihong CHEN & Shihe FU, 2008. "LA CROISSANCE URBAINE CHINOISE RECONSIDeReE," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 27, pages 109-131.
    18. Bosker, Maarten & Brakman, Steven & Garretsen, Harry & Schramm, Marc, 2008. "A century of shocks: The evolution of the German city size distribution 1925-1999," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 330-347, July.
    19. María Ayuda & Fernando Collantes & Vicente Pinilla, 2010. "From locational fundamentals to increasing returns: the spatial concentration of population in Spain, 1787–2000," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 25-50, March.
    20. Rafael González-Val & Arturo Ramos & Fernando Sanz-Gracia & María Vera-Cabello, 2015. "Size distributions for all cities: Which one is best?," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 94(1), pages 177-196, March.
    21. Rafael González-Val, 2012. "A Nonparametric Estimation of the Local Zipf Exponent for all US Cities," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 39(6), pages 1119-1130, December.
    22. Denise PUMAIN, 2012. "Une Théorie Géographique Pour La Loi De Zipf," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 36, pages 31-54.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • N33 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • N34 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: 1913-
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:anresc:v:65:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1007_s00168-020-00992-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.