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Heterogeniczność polityki pieniężnej w krótkim i długim okresie

Author

Listed:
  • Łukasz Goczek

    (Uniwersytet Warszawski)

  • Dagmara Mycielska

    (Uniwersytet Warszawski)

Abstract

Można przyjąć, iż wraz z zacieśniającą się współpracą ekonomiczną i finansową będzie się pogłębiał proces konwergencji gospodarczej między krajami strefy euro a pozostałymi członkami Unii Europejskiej. Oczekiwać można zatem zarówno coraz silniejszej synchronizacji cykli koniunkturalnych w tych krajach, jak i wysokiej korelacji działań podejmowanych przez władze tych krajów w reakcji na szok zewnętrzny. Jeśli kraje te cieszą się pełną swobodą kształtowania polityki pieniężnej, tj. możliwością swobodnego kształtowania stóp procentowych, występowanie zależności krótko- i długookresowej między stopami procentowymi tych krajów może być przejawem faktycznej konwergencji realnej. W celu zbadania tej zależności w artykule przedstawiono analizę empiryczną zależności między stopami procentowymi rynków międzybankowych strefy euro oraz wybranych krajów Europy Środkowej, należących do Unii Europejskiej. Użyto danych dziennych z lat 2001–2014. Ze względu na spodziewaną heterogeniczność dostosowań w krótkim i długim okresie oraz nieobserwowalną zależność krzyżową pomiędzy jednostkami obserwacyjnymi w panelu zastosowano dwa modele - Pooled Mean Group oraz Mean Group. Oszacowania modelu poprzedziły testy stacjonarności i kointegracji panelowej.

Suggested Citation

  • Łukasz Goczek & Dagmara Mycielska, 2014. "Heterogeniczność polityki pieniężnej w krótkim i długim okresie," Collegium of Economic Analysis Annals, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, issue 34, pages 153-164.
    • Handle: RePEc:sgh:annals:i:34:y:2014:p:153-164
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Łukasz Goczek & Dagmara Mycielska, 2014. "Monetary policy and nominal convergence in CEE countries with inflation targeting," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 38.

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