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Estimating and Forecasting Production and Orders in Manufacturing Industry from Business Survey Data: Evidence from Switzerland, 1990-2003

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  • Richard Etter
  • Michael Graff

Abstract

A fundamental issue for policy-oriented business cycle research is access to leading - or at least coincident - and reliable indicators of economic activity in manufacturing industry. Therefore, we analyse how the quickly disposable, qualitative information of the business tendency survey conducted by the Swiss Institute for Business Cycle Research (KOF) is related to the official production and order statistics of Switzerland. Pairs of high cross-correlations were selected for further analyses (Granger causality, pattern of turning points). In the next step, the remaining variables are used as predictors of the official statistics in a bivariate and multivariate approach. The results show a very high and stable relationship between the two data-sets particularly for nowcasts and - though to a somewhat lesser degree - for short term prognostics.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Etter & Michael Graff, 2003. "Estimating and Forecasting Production and Orders in Manufacturing Industry from Business Survey Data: Evidence from Switzerland, 1990-2003," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 139(IV), pages 507-533, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ses:arsjes:2003-iv-3
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    Cited by:

    1. Deimante Teresiene & Greta Keliuotyte-Staniuleniene & Yiyi Liao & Rasa Kanapickiene & Ruihui Pu & Siyan Hu & Xiao-Guang Yue, 2021. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Consumer and Business Confidence Indicators," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-23, April.
    2. Kaufmann, Daniel & Scheufele, Rolf, 2017. "Business tendency surveys and macroeconomic fluctuations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 878-893.
    3. de Bondt, Gabe J. & Dieden, Heinz C. & Muzikarova, Sona & Vincze, Istvan, 2014. "Modelling industrial new orders," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 46-54.
    4. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2010. "Assessing Predictive Content of the KOF Barometer in Real Time," KOF Working papers 10-249, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    5. Sergey V. Arzhenovskiy, 2024. "Forecasting GDP Dynamics Based on the Bank of Russia’s Enterprise Monitoring Data," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 1, pages 31-44, February.
    6. Richard Etter & Sibylle Guebeli & Franz-Josef Klein, 2004. "Mitlaufende und vorlaufende Indikatoren des Bruttoinlandprodukts der EU insgesamt. Analyse mit vollständigen Daten, welche einmalig vom DG ECFIN zur Verfuegung gestellt wurden," KOF Working papers 04-92, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    7. de Bondt, Gabe & Dieden, Heinz Christian & Muzikarova, Sona & Vincze, Istvan, 2013. "Introducing the ECB indicator on euro area industrial new orders," Occasional Paper Series 149, European Central Bank.
    8. de Bondt, Gabe & Dieden, Heinz Christian & Muzikarova, Sona & Vincze, Istvan, 2014. "Modelling industrial new orders for the euro area," Statistics Paper Series 6, European Central Bank.
    9. Gabe de Bondt & Heinz C. Dieden & Sona Muzikarova & Istvan Vincze, 2013. "Modeling Euro Area Industrial New Orders," EcoMod2013 5663, EcoMod.
    10. de Bondt, Gabe & Dieden, Heinz Christian & Muzikarova, Sona & Vincze, Istvan, 2013. "Introducing the ECB indicator on euro area industrial new orders," Occasional Paper Series 149, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Coincident and leading indicators; forecasting; manufacturing industry;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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