Reform or revolution? Theory and evidence on the role of the middle class in the rise of universal male suffrage

This paper presents a theoretical account of suffrage extensions from a specific perspective: the strategic role of the middle class in the struggle for political power. Extensions are analyzed as a game among three players: the elite, the middle class, and the poor. To thwart the threat presented by the poor, the elite had to cede economic and political power to the middle class, who in turn might have an interest in extending suffrage further, either immediately or in some future. Whether suffrage was extended to the poor in one step or first only to the middle class depended on state’s capacity to repress and the strength of the middle class, along with some economic variables. Consistent with this theory, empirical results show that suffrage extensions did not reduce rebellious activity, but rather that economic growth and military power are strong predictors of decreases in the number of rebellions.