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Third-party Interventions and the Duration of Intrastate Conflicts

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  • PATRICK M. REGAN

    (Department of Political Science Binghamton University)

Abstract

Recent research has begun to focus on the role of outside interventions in the duration of civil conflicts. Assuming that interventions are a form of conflict management, ex ante expectations would be that they would reduce a conflict's expected duration. Hypotheses relating the type and timing of outside interventions to the duration of civil conflicts are tested. The data incorporate 150 conflicts during the period from 1945 to 1999, 101 of which had outside interventions. Using a hazard analysis, the results suggest that third-party interventions tend to extend expected durations rather than shorten them. The only aspect of the strategy for intervening that reduces the likelihood that a conflict will end in the next month is that it be biased in favor of either the opposition or the government. In effect, neutral interventions are less effective than biased ones.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick M. Regan, 2002. "Third-party Interventions and the Duration of Intrastate Conflicts," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 46(1), pages 55-73, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:46:y:2002:i:1:p:55-73
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    Cited by:

    1. Silve, Arthur & Verdier, Thierry, 2018. "A theory of regional conflict complexes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 434-447.
    2. Carlos P. Barros & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2011. "Terrorism: The Case of ETA," Chapters, in: Derek L. Braddon & Keith Hartley (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Conflict, chapter 16, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Dario Maimone Ansaldo Patti & Daniel Montolio, 2014. "Bargaining in international conflicts resolution: UN involvement and conflict settlement," Chapters, in: Francesco Forte & Ram Mudambi & Pietro Maria Navarra (ed.), A Handbook of Alternative Theories of Public Economics, chapter 19, pages 443-471, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Shane Sanders & Bhavneet Walia, 2014. "Endogenous Destruction in a Model of Armed Conflict: Implications for Conflict Intensity, Welfare, and Third-Party Intervention," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 16(4), pages 606-619, August.
    5. Kinclová Lenka, 2015. "Legitimacy of the “Humanitarian Military Intervention”: An Empirical Assessment," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1), pages 111-152, January.
    6. Gutiérrez Sanín, Francisco & González Peña, Andrea, 2009. "Force and ambiguity: evaluating sources for cross-national research – the case of military interventions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 28494, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Azam, Jean-Paul, 2005. "Can the Peace Be Imported?," IDEI Working Papers 356, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    8. Abu-Bader, Suleiman & Ianchovichina, Elena, 2019. "Polarization, foreign military intervention, and civil conflict," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    9. Burton Lucy & Johnson Shane D. & Braithwaite Alex, 2017. "Potential uses of Numerical Simulation for the Modelling of Civil Conflict," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 23(1), pages 1-39, January.
    10. Lutmar Carmela & Terris Lesley, 2016. "Leadership Changes and Civil War Agreements: Exploring Preliminary Links," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 22(4), pages 439-448, December.
    11. Vincenzo Bove & Ron Smith, 2011. "The Economics of Peacekeeping," Chapters, in: Derek L. Braddon & Keith Hartley (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Conflict, chapter 10, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. David Carment & Martin Fischer, 2011. "Three’s Company? Towards an Understanding of Third-Party Intervention Effectiveness," Chapters, in: Christopher J. Coyne & Rachel L. Mathers (ed.), The Handbook on the Political Economy of War, chapter 22, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Dominic Rohner, 2018. "Success Factors for Peace Treaties: A Review of Theory and Evidence," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 18.08, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    14. David Fielding & Anja Shortland, 2010. "What Explains Changes in the Level of Abuse Against Civilians during the Peruvian Civil War?," Working Papers 1003, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised May 2010.
    15. Larry W. Taylor, 2007. "Nonparametric Estimation of Duration Dependence in Militarized Interstate Disputes," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 423-441.
    16. Matthew R DiGiuseppe & Colin M Barry & Richard W Frank, 2012. "Good for the money," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 49(3), pages 391-405, May.
    17. Hoddinott, John & Margolies, Amy, 2012. "Mapping the Impacts of Food Aid: Current Knowledge and Future Directions," WIDER Working Paper Series 034, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    18. Ibrahim Elbadawi & Raimundo Soto, 2013. "Exchange Rate Regimes for Post-conflict Recovery," Working Papers 748, Economic Research Forum, revised Apr 2013.
    19. Martínez, Luis R., 2017. "Transnational insurgents: Evidence from Colombia's FARC at the border with Chávez's Venezuela," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 138-153.

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