IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/emeeco/v14y2022i2p185-203.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exchange Rate and Stock Markets During Trade Conflicts in the USA, China, and India

Author

Listed:
  • Deepika Krishnan
  • Vishal Dagar

Abstract

During trade tussles, most of the stock exchanges are impacted, both directly and indirectly, thereby influencing the exchange rates of the countries. This article gives a comprehensive insight into the effects of exchange rate on the USA, China, and Indian stock market, that is, the Dow Jones industrial average index (DJI), Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) composite index, and Nifty50 index during trade conflicts. Trade conflicts here talk about the recent trade war between the USA and China, which was invariably fallen in line with the outbreak of COVID-19. Sample of this study comprises the daily closing price from different indices and exchange rate values US dollar, yuan, and rupee. This article uses ordinary least square (OLS) model and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model to analyze the volatility and influence of exchange rate over the stock market. Results from OLS model indicated that the fluctuations in exchange rate have minimum impact on the daily closing price of stock indices, that is, DJI, SSE, and Nifty50 in the USA, China, and India, respectively, however, exchange rate impacts volume of shares traded in all three stock exchanges. The GARCH model implies that the conditional variance is less volatile for Nifty volume, but highly volatile for SSE and DJI stock volumes traded. The findings of the study provide insights to the domestic and foreign investors regarding their investment in the stock market during trade conflicts and mostly during COVID-19 situation.

Suggested Citation

  • Deepika Krishnan & Vishal Dagar, 2022. "Exchange Rate and Stock Markets During Trade Conflicts in the USA, China, and India," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 14(2), pages 185-203, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:emeeco:v:14:y:2022:i:2:p:185-203
    DOI: 10.1177/09749101221082724
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/09749101221082724
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/09749101221082724?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wei, Yu & Qin, Songkun & Li, Xiafei & Zhu, Sha & Wei, Guiwu, 2019. "Oil price fluctuation, stock market and macroeconomic fundamentals: Evidence from China before and after the financial crisis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 23-29.
    2. Nils Holinski & Robert Vermeulen, 2012. "The international wealth channel: a global error-correcting analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 985-1010, December.
    3. Yu Hsing, 2020. "Exchange rate movements and aggregate output: the case of China," International Journal of Trade and Global Markets, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 13(2), pages 135-143.
    4. Yoke Yue Kan, 2017. "Why RMB should be more flexible," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 9(02), pages 156-173, May.
    5. Gita Gopinath & Emine Boz & Camila Casas & Federico J. Díez & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller, 2020. "Dominant Currency Paradigm," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(3), pages 677-719, March.
    6. Mundell, Robert, 2012. "The case for a world currency," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 568-578.
    7. Byrne, Joseph P. & Darby, Julia & MacDonald, Ronald, 2008. "US trade and exchange rate volatility: A real sectoral bilateral analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 238-259, March.
    8. Shusong Ba & Shanshan Shen, 2010. "Research on China’s Export Structure to the US: Analysis Based on the US Economic Growth and Exchange Rate," Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities, Higher Education Press, vol. 5(3), pages 339-355, September.
    9. Yang Zhang & Mengling Li & Wai-Mun Chia, 2014. "Foreign interest rate shocks and exchange rate regimes in East Asia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(21), pages 2488-2501, July.
    10. Andreas Benedictow & Pål Boug, 2013. "Trade liberalisation and exchange rate pass-through: the case of textiles and wearing apparels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 757-788, October.
    11. Shehu Usman Rano Aliyu, 2010. "Exchange rate volatility and export trade in Nigeria: an empirical investigation," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(13), pages 1071-1084.
    12. Imad Moosa, 2011. "On the U.S.-Chinese trade dispute," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 85-112.
    13. Hu, May & Li, Yunfeng & Yang, Jingjing & Chao, Chi-Chur, 2016. "Actual intervention and verbal intervention in the Chinese RMB exchange rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 499-508.
    14. Larry D. Qiu & Chaoqun Zhan & Xing Wei, 2019. "An analysis of the China–US trade war through the lens of the trade literature," Economic and Political Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 148-168, April.
    15. Paul J. J. Welfens, 2020. "Macroeconomic and health care aspects of the coronavirus epidemic: EU, US and global perspectives," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 295-362, May.
    16. Rekha Misra & Sonam Choudhry, 2020. "Trade War: Likely Impact on India," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 55(1), pages 93-118, February.
    17. Shusong Ba & Shanshan Shen, 2010. "Research on China’s export structure to the US: Analysis based on the US economic growth and exchange rate," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer;Higher Education Press, vol. 5(3), pages 339-355, September.
    18. Monique Carvalho & André Azevedo & Angélica Massuquetti, 2019. "Emerging Countries and the Effects of the Trade War between US and China," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-21, May.
    19. Xuejin Zhao & Wei-Guo Zhang & Yong-Jun Liu, 2020. "Volatility Spillovers and Risk Contagion Paths with Capital Flows across Multiple Financial Markets in China," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(4), pages 731-749, March.
    20. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Ratha, Artatrana, 2008. "Exchange rate sensitivity of US bilateral trade flows," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 129-141, June.
    21. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    22. Anastasios Evgenidis & Dionisis Philippas & Costas Siriopoulos, 2019. "Heterogeneous effects in the international transmission of the US monetary policy: a factor-augmented VAR perspective," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 1549-1579, May.
    23. Gopinath, Gita & Boz, Emine & Casas, Camila & Díez, Federico J & Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Plagborg-Møller, Mikkel, 2020. "Dominant Currency Paradigm," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt52b56456, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    24. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Kaveepot Satawatananon, 2012. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on commodity trade between the US and Thailand," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(4), pages 515-532, August.
    25. Law, Kai Po Jenny & Satoh, Eiji & Yoshimi, Taiyo, 2018. "Exchange rate pass-through at the individual product level: Implications for financial market integration," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 261-271.
    26. Chi Hung Kwan, 2020. "The China–US Trade War: Deep‐Rooted Causes, Shifting Focus and Uncertain Prospects," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 15(1), pages 55-72, January.
    27. Nisreen Moosa & Vikash Ramiah & Huy Pham & Alastair Watson, 2020. "The origin of the US-China trade war," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(35), pages 3842-3857, July.
    28. Wei Sun & Gil Kim, 2018. "Assessing the effects of exchange rate depreciation on the US economy," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 45(6), pages 1242-1271, November.
    29. B. J. Lobo, 2002. "Large changes in major exchange rates: a chronicle of the 1990s," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(11), pages 805-811.
    30. Anthony W. Chen & Jim Chen & V. Reddy Dondeti, 2020. "The US-China trade war: dominance of trade or technology?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(11), pages 904-909, June.
    31. Natalya Ketenci, 2016. "The bilateral trade flows of the EU in the presence of structural breaks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1369-1398, December.
    32. World Bank, "undated". "World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, April 2020," World Bank Publications - Reports 33477, The World Bank Group.
    33. Aristotelous, Kyriacos, 2001. "Exchange-rate volatility, exchange-rate regime, and trade volume: evidence from the UK-US export function (1889-1999)," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 87-94, July.
    34. Zhang, Dayong & Lei, Lei & Ji, Qiang & Kutan, Ali M., 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty in the US and China and their impact on the global markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 47-56.
    35. Sigbjorn Tveteras & Frank Asche, 2008. "International fish trade and exchange rates: an application to the trade with salmon and fishmeal," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(13), pages 1745-1755.
    36. Aleksei Anatolievich Ustiuzhanin & Irina Aleksandrovna Liman & Elena Petrovna Kiselitsa & Natalia Nikolaevna Shilova & Tatiana Ivanovna Leyman, 2019. "The ruble exchange rate and the price of oil: assessment of the degree of dependence, its causes and ways of overcoming," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 7(1), pages 121-132, September.
    37. Bai, Shuming & Koong, Kai S., 2018. "Oil prices, stock returns, and exchange rates: Empirical evidence from China and the United States," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 12-33.
    38. I. Sheldon & S. Khadka Mishra & D. Pick & S. R. Thompson, 2013. "Exchange rate uncertainty and US bilateral fresh fruit and fresh vegetable trade: an application of the gravity model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(15), pages 2067-2082, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shubham Kakran & Nishant Sapra & Ashish Kumar & Arpit Sidhu, 2024. "Interrelationship dynamics between stock markets of nation under debt crisis and its major trading partners: evidence from Sri Lankan crisis," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 1-15, December.
    2. Tariq Mahmood & Ibtasam Ahmad & Malik Muhammad Zeeshan Ansar & Jumanah Ahmed Darwish & Rehan Ahmad Khan Sherwani, 2024. "Comparative Study of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Quantum Long Short-Term Memory (QLSTM): Prediction of Stock Market Movement," Papers 2409.08297, arXiv.org.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shi, Yujie & Wang, Liming & Ke, Jian, 2021. "Does the US-China trade war affect co-movements between US and Chinese stock markets?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    2. Chih‐Hai Yang & Kazunobu Hayakawa, 2023. "The Substitution Effect of US‐China Trade War on Taiwanese Trade," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 61(4), pages 324-341, December.
    3. Yusaku Nishimura & Bianxia Sun, 2018. "China’s Exchange-Rate Regime Reform and Trade Between China and the Eurozone," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(2), pages 450-467, January.
    4. Ranjini L. Thaver & Christina Bova, 2014. "An Estimation of Ecuador's Export Demand Function with the US," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 8(1), pages 89-102.
    5. Chi, Junwook & Cheng, Seu Keow, 2016. "Do exchange rate volatility and income affect Australia’s maritime export flows to Asia?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 13-21.
    6. Wenbo Jia & Hao Jiang & Yiqing Lyv & Stavros Sindakis, 2025. "Uncertainty’s Effect on China’s Knowledge-Based Economy: Transformation Beyond Trade," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 16(1), pages 4684-4725, March.
    7. Thomas Goda & Alejandro Torres García & Cristhian Larrahondo, 2024. "Real exchange rates and manufacturing exports in emerging economies: the role of sectoral heterogeneity and product complexity," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 160(3), pages 1057-1082, August.
    8. Masashige Hamano & Francesco Pappadà, 2023. "Exchange Rate Policy and Firm Heterogeneity," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(3), pages 759-790, September.
    9. Kocięcki, Andrzej & Kolasa, Marcin, 2023. "A solution to the global identification problem in DSGE models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(2).
    10. Aizenman, Joshua & Ito, Hiro & Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur, 2022. "Central bank swap arrangements in the COVID-19 crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    11. Bao, Ho Hoang Gia & Le, Hoang Phong, 2021. "ASEAN's trade balance with the whole EU-28 at industry level: The role of vehicle currency," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    12. Santiago Camara, 2021. "Spillovers of US Interest Rates: Monetary Policy & Information Effects," Papers 2111.08631, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2023.
    13. Beniamino Quintieri & Giovanni Stamato, 2023. "Are preferential agreements beneficial to EU trade? New evidence from the EU–South Korea treaty," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(12), pages 3511-3541, December.
    14. Javier Bianchi & Saki Bigio & Charles Engel, 2021. "Scrambling for Dollars: International Liquidity, Banks and Exchange Rates," Working Papers 786, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    15. Harald Uhlig & Taojun Xie, 2020. "Parallel Digital Currencies and Sticky Prices," Working Papers 2020-188, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    16. Erdal Demirhan & Banu Demirhan, 2015. "The Dynamic Effect of ExchangeRate Volatility on Turkish Exports: Parsimonious Error-Correction Model Approach," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(4), pages 429-451, September.
    17. Corsetti, G. & Han, L. & Crowley, M. & Song, H., 2018. "Markets and Markups: Evidence on the Rising Market Power of Exporters from China," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1815, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    18. Yin-Wong Cheung, 2023. "A decade of RMB internationalisation," Economic and Political Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 47-74, January.
    19. E. M. Ekanayake & Ranjini L. Thaver & Daniel Plante, 2012. "The Effects Of Exchange Rate Volatility On South Africa’S Trade With The European Union," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 6(3), pages 13-26.
    20. Coman, Andra & Lloyd, Simon P., 2022. "In the face of spillovers: Prudential policies in emerging economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:emeeco:v:14:y:2022:i:2:p:185-203. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.emergingmarketsforum.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.