IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/ecolab/v33y2022i3p526-546.html

The effect of the universal two-child policy on female labour market outcomes in China

Author

Listed:
  • Qian Huang
  • Xiaofei Jin

Abstract

To alleviate the imbalance in demographics, the Chinese government initiated the universal two-child policy nationwide in 2016, which has comprehensively impacted society, especially females. Our study investigates whether this policy has negatively affected workforce employment and income among women in urban areas. Based on the DID (difference-in-differences) method and the Heckman Two-Step Estimation, reliable empirical evidence shows that the universal two-child policy has significantly reduced women’s employment by 4.06% and decreased their labour income by 10.43%. Surprisingly, this policy has decreased the employment among women under 25 years old by 23.99% and has reduced the income of higher educated females by 29.59%. Furthermore, we find that the influence of the universal two-child policy on female employment has gradually increased from 2016 to 2018, and its impact on income has presented an evident time lag. JEL Codes: J13, J21, J31

Suggested Citation

  • Qian Huang & Xiaofei Jin, 2022. "The effect of the universal two-child policy on female labour market outcomes in China," The Economic and Labour Relations Review, , vol. 33(3), pages 526-546, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:ecolab:v:33:y:2022:i:3:p:526-546
    DOI: 10.1177/10353046221112716
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/10353046221112716
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/10353046221112716?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James J. Heckman, 1976. "The Common Structure of Statistical Models of Truncation, Sample Selection and Limited Dependent Variables and a Simple Estimator for Such Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 4, pages 475-492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Mincer, Jacob, 1970. "The Distribution of Labor Incomes: A Survey with Special Reference to the Human Capital Approach," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 1-26, March.
    3. Deborah J. Anderson & Melissa Binder & Kate Krause, 2002. "The Motherhood Wage Penalty: Which Mothers Pay It and Why?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 354-358, May.
    4. Claudia Goldin, 2006. "The Quiet Revolution That Transformed Women's Employment, Education, and Family," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 1-21, May.
    5. Jacob A. Mincer, 1974. "Introduction to "Schooling, Experience, and Earnings"," NBER Chapters, in: Schooling, Experience, and Earnings, pages 1-4, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Zvi Eckstein & Osnat Lifshitz, 2011. "Dynamic Female Labor Supply," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(6), pages 1675-1726, November.
    7. Esther Duflo, 2001. "Schooling and Labor Market Consequences of School Construction in Indonesia: Evidence from an Unusual Policy Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 795-813, September.
    8. Sara Cools & Simen Markussen & Marte Strøm, 2017. "Children and Careers: How Family Size Affects Parents’ Labor Market Outcomes in the Long Run," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(5), pages 1773-1793, October.
    9. Petra Moser & Alessandra Voena, 2012. "Compulsory Licensing: Evidence from the Trading with the Enemy Act," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 396-427, February.
    10. Matthew Gentzkow, 2006. "Television and Voter Turnout," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(3), pages 931-972.
    11. Vanessa Gash, 2009. "Sacrificing Their Careers for Their Families? An Analysis of the Penalty to Motherhood in Europe," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 93(3), pages 569-586, September.
    12. Jacob A. Mincer, 1974. "Schooling, Experience, and Earnings," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number minc74-1, October.
    13. David Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn Finlay, 2009. "Fertility, female labor force participation, and the demographic dividend," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 79-101, June.
    14. Goldin, Claudia, 2006. "The Quiet Revolution That Transformed Women’s Employment, Education, and Family," Scholarly Articles 2943933, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    15. Linda Adair & Eilene Bisgrove & David Guilkey & Socorro Gultiano, 2002. "Effect of childbearing on Filipino women's work hours and earnings," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 15(4), pages 625-645.
    16. Henrik Kleven & Camille Landais & Jakob Egholt Søgaard, 2019. "Children and Gender Inequality: Evidence from Denmark," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 181-209, October.
    17. Robert Rudolf & Sung-Jin Kang, 2015. "Lags and Leads in Life Satisfaction in Korea: When Gender Matters," Feminist Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 136-163, January.
    18. Meyer, Bruce D, 1995. "Natural and Quasi-experiments in Economics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(2), pages 151-161, April.
    19. Dennis Tao Yang & Marjorie McElroy, 2000. "Carrots and Sticks: Fertility Effects of China's Population Policies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 389-392, May.
    20. Chinhui Juhn & Kristin McCue, 2017. "Specialization Then and Now: Marriage, Children, and the Gender Earnings Gap across Cohorts," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(1), pages 183-204, Winter.
    21. Angrist, Joshua D & Evans, William N, 1998. "Children and Their Parents' Labor Supply: Evidence from Exogenous Variation in Family Size," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 450-477, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yi Chen & Zu Wang, 2024. "The dilemma between fertility and work: How did the Universal Two-Child policy affect Chinese women’s labor income?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 19(8), pages 1-22, August.
    2. Huang, Qian & Fan, Ziang, 2025. "Relaxation of fertility policy and firm’s short-term hiring of female employees: Evidence from China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Astrid Kunze, 2020. "The effect of children on male earnings and inequality," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 683-710, September.
    2. Olivetti, Claudia & Pan, Jessica & Petrongolo, Barbara, 2024. "The evolution of gender in the labor market," Handbook of Labor Economics,, Elsevier.
    3. Zhengyu Cai & John V. Winters, 2024. "Income and Fertility of Female College Graduates in the United States," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 479-498, December.
    4. Ali Abboud, 2025. "The Impact of Early Fertility Shocks on Women’s Fertility and Labor Market Outcomes," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 194-227, March.
    5. Bhalotra, Sonia & Clarke, Damian & Walther, Selma, 2022. "Women's Careers and Family Formation," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1120, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    6. Brieland, Stephanie & Töpfer, Marina, 2020. "The gender pay gap revisited: Does machine learning offer new insights?," Discussion Papers 111, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Chair of Labour and Regional Economics.
    7. Parla Onuk & Yılmaz Aydin, 2024. "Gender gap and the labour market structure: A neoclassical approach for the case of Turkiye," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 58(5), pages 4627-4640, October.
    8. Musayir, Arlan & Arabsheibani, Reza, 2025. "Motherhood and Informality: Empirical Evidence from Russia," IZA Discussion Papers 17916, IZA Network @ LISER.
    9. Paolo Verme, 2015. "Economic development and female labor participation in the Middle East and North Africa: a test of the U-shape hypothesis," IZA Journal of Labor & Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-21, December.
    10. Yasser Razak Hussain & Pranab Mukhopadhyay, 2023. "How Much do Education, Experience, and Social Networks Impact Earnings in India? A Panel Data Analysis Disaggregated by Class, Gender, Caste and Religion," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(4), pages 21582440231, December.
    11. Van Effenterre, Clémentine, 2020. "Papa does preach: Daughters and polarization of attitudes toward abortion," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 188-201.
    12. Finlay, Jocelyn E., 2021. "Women’s reproductive health and economic activity: A narrative review," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    13. Chengfang Liu & Ye Li & Shaoping Li & Renfu Luo & Linxiu Zhang & Scott Rozelle & Spencer Hagist & Jack Hou, 2020. "The returns to education in rural China: Some new estimates," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(1), pages 189-208, January.
    14. Estefanía Galván & Cecilia García‐Peñalosa, 2025. "Interactions among gender norms: Evidence from US couples," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 72(1), February.
    15. Nieto, Adrián, 2021. "Native-immigrant differences in the effect of children on the gender pay gap," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 654-680.
    16. Bonaccolto-Töpfer, Marina & Briel, Stephanie, 2022. "The gender pay gap revisited: Does machine learning offer new insights?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    17. Paweenawat, Sasiwimon Warunsiri & Liao, Lusi, 2022. "Parenthood penalty and gender wage gap: Recent evidence from Thailand," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    18. Yu, Haiyue & Cao, Jin & Kang, Shulong, 2019. "Fertility cost, intergenerational labor division, and female employment," BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2019, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    19. Martina Querejeta Rabosto & Marisa Bucheli, 2021. "Motherhood Penalties: the Effect of Childbirth on Women's Employment Dynamics in a Developing Country," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0121, Department of Economics - dECON.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:ecolab:v:33:y:2022:i:3:p:526-546. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.