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Dynamic Nonmetropolitan Export-Base Modeling

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas R. Harris

    (University of Nevada, Reno)

  • J. Scott Shonkwiler

    (University of Nevada, Reno)

  • George E. Ebai

    (University of Nevada, Reno)

Abstract

This paper investigated a time series export-base model of nonmetropolitan Nevada counties. Confirmatory factor analysis was used to bifurcate county employment, and county basic and nonbasic employment were tested for cointegration. Employing the Granger Representation Theorem, an error correction mechanism model was estimated. Error correction mechanism model forecasts were performed and long-run forecasts were evaluated. Given current microcomputer hardware and software, this paper provides a procedure to conduct dynamic rural impact analysis by employing a dynamic export-base model.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas R. Harris & J. Scott Shonkwiler & George E. Ebai, 1999. "Dynamic Nonmetropolitan Export-Base Modeling," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 29(2), pages 115-138, Fall.
  • Handle: RePEc:rre:publsh:v:29:y:1999:i:2:p:115-138
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Shahin Shahidsaless & William Gillis & Ron Shaffer, 1983. "Community Characteristics and Employment Multipliers in Nonmetropolitan Counties, 1950-1970," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 59(1), pages 84-93.
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    3. J. Shonkwiler & C. Moss, 1993. "A multidimensional index of financial stress in the farm sector," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 307-316, July.
    4. Lesage, James P. & Reed, J. David, 1989. "The dynamic relationship between export, local, and total area employment," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 615-636, December.
    5. Charles M. Tiebout, 1956. "Exports and Regional Economic Growth: Rejoinder," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64, pages 169-169.
    6. Charles M. Tiebout, 1956. "Exports and Regional Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64, pages 160-160.
    7. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    8. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
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    11. Engle, Robert F. & Issler, Joao Victor, 1995. "Estimating common sectoral cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 83-113, February.
    12. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    13. James E. McNulty, 1977. "A Test of the Time Dimension in Economic Base Analysis," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 53(3), pages 359-368.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sorenson, David J., 2007. "Assessing Economic Base Relationships in South Dakota," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 37(2).
    2. Jason P. Brown & Stephan J. Goetz & Mary C. Ahearn & Chyi-lyi (Kathleen) Liang, 2014. "Linkages Between Community-Focused Agriculture, Farm Sales, and Regional Growth," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 28(1), pages 5-16, February.
    3. Maureen Kilkenny & Mark D. Partridge, 2009. "Export Sectors and Rural Development," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(4), pages 910-929.
    4. Park JiYoung & Gordon Peter & Jun Eunha & Moore James E & Richardson Harry W., 2009. "Identifying the Regional Economic Impacts of 9/11," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 15(2), pages 1-34, July.
    5. Jens Abildtrup & Virginie Piguet & Bertrand Schmitt, 2011. "The impact of agro-food industry on employment and population changes: The case of Denmark and France'," ERSA conference papers ersa10p1622, European Regional Science Association.
    6. Dan S. Rickman & Steven R. Miller & Russell McKenzie, 2009. "Spatial and sectoral linkages in regional models: A Bayesian vector autoregression forecast evaluation," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(1), pages 29-41, March.

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