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Spurious Regression And Cointegration. Numerical Example: Romania’S M2 Money Demand

Author

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  • Ruxanda, Gheorghe

    (Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest)

  • Botezatu, Andreea

    (Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest)

Abstract

Economic time series are, in their vast majority, integrated series so, their modelling procedure stumbles upon the problem of spurious regression. When existent, cointegration is the simplest way of eliminating the illogical correlation established between time series due to the presence of trends. The analysis of macroeconomic time series through cointegration is a common fact. Modelling the Romanian M2 money demand through cointegration and vector error correction led to somewhat significant results being a starting point for future, more complex research.

Suggested Citation

  • Ruxanda, Gheorghe & Botezatu, Andreea, 2008. "Spurious Regression And Cointegration. Numerical Example: Romania’S M2 Money Demand," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(3), pages 51-62, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v:5:y:2008:i:3:p:51-62
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Chipeta Chama & Meyer Daniel Francois & Muzindutsi Paul-Francois, 2017. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Movements and Economic Growth on Job Creation," Studia Universitatis Babeș-Bolyai Oeconomica, Sciendo, vol. 62(2), pages 20-41, August.
    2. Meyer Danie Francois & Chipeta Chama & Camel Richard Thabang Mc, 2018. "An Analysis of the Effectiveness of Interest Rates to Facilitate Price Stability and Economic Growth in South Africa," Studia Universitatis Babeș-Bolyai Oeconomica, Sciendo, vol. 63(3), pages 68-90, December.
    3. Dan Nicolae & Valentin Pau & Mihaela Jaradat & Mugurel Ionut Andreica & Vasile Deac, 2010. "Mathematical Model for Forecasting and Estimating of Market Demand," Post-Print hal-00768770, HAL.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    spurious regression; cointegration; money demand; error correction mechanism.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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