IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

China Motorization Trends: New Directions for Crowded Cities


  • Ng, Wei-Shiuen

    () (University of California, Berkeley)

  • Schipper, Lee

    () (University of California, Berkeley)

  • Chen, Yang

    () (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)


This paper examines two major emerging constraints on transport in fast-growing Chinese urban cities: oil supply and urban infrastructure. The research considers automobile technology, alternative fuels, and mobility choices, as well as policy measures that could be adopted to reduce the use of oil for transport and greenhouse gas emissions. Three transport energy scenarios, “Road Ahead,” “Oil Saved,” and “Integrated Transport,” illustrate potential motorization trends given different policy, vehicle technology, alternative fuels, and driving-behavior assumptions. In the Integrated Transport scenario, where congestion and space constraints favor small and vehicles moving at slower speeds, gasoline and electric cars are the highest in use. Oil consumption in the Integrated Transport scenario is only 12 percent of its value in Road Ahead by 2020, while carbon emission is 79 percent lower. Policies such as vehicle technology and fuel requirements, while important, are not as crucial as integrated land use development, taxation of vehicle use, road pricing, and the prioritization of public and non-motorized transport that could trigger a world of fewer, smaller and more efficient cars. According to experiences around the world, fuel and carbon dioxide (CO₂)concerns alone are not strong enough to promote a change in the path of individual motorization.

Suggested Citation

  • Ng, Wei-Shiuen & Schipper, Lee & Chen, Yang, 2010. "China Motorization Trends: New Directions for Crowded Cities," The Journal of Transport and Land Use, Center for Transportation Studies, University of Minnesota, vol. 3(3), pages 5-25.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:jtralu:0049

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. He, Kebin & Huo, Hong & Zhang, Qiang & He, Dongquan & An, Feng & Wang, Michael & Walsh, Michael P., 2005. "Oil consumption and CO2 emissions in China's road transport: current status, future trends, and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 1499-1507, August.
    2. Lee Schipper & Céline Marie-Lilliu & Lew Fulton, 2002. "Diesels in Europe: Analysis of Characteristics, Usage Patterns, Energy Savings and CO 2 Emission Implications," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 36(2), pages 305-340, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Feng, Jianxi & Dijst, Martin & Wissink, Bart & Prillwitz, Jan, 2017. "Changing travel behaviour in urban China: Evidence from Nanjing 2008–2011," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1-10.
    2. Zegras, P. Christopher, 2010. "Transport and Land Use in China," The Journal of Transport and Land Use, Center for Transportation Studies, University of Minnesota, vol. 3(3), pages 1-3.
    3. Wang, Rui & Yuan, Quan, 2013. "Parking practices and policies under rapid motorization: The case of China," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 109-116.
    4. Levinson, David, 2011. "Introduction," The Journal of Transport and Land Use, Center for Transportation Studies, University of Minnesota, vol. 4(1), pages 1-3.

    More about this item


    Transport; Land Use; China; Motorization;

    JEL classification:

    • R40 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - General


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:jtralu:0049. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Arlene Mathison) or (). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.