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The Effect of Country Default Risk on Foreign Direct Investment

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Abstract

In this paper we use the structural credit risk methodology of Merton (1974) to estimate country default risk as the country financial risk premium for eight of the largest Latin American economies - Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela - from 1986 to 2000. We test whether and to what extent it affects the amount of foreign direct investment (FDI). We find that the lagged second difference of the financial risk premium is a significant explanatory variable that is robust with respect to the other explanatory variables, including a standard measure of country/political risk, as well as with respect to the individual countries.

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  • Clark, Ephraim & Kassimatis, Konstantinos, 2009. "The Effect of Country Default Risk on Foreign Direct Investment," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 62(3), pages 342-361.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:ecoint:0003
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    1. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Gabriele Tondl, 2011. "Do determinants of FDI to developing countries differ among OECD investors? Insights from Bayesian Model Averaging," FIW Working Paper series 076, FIW.
    2. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Gabriele Tondl, 2015. "Robust determinants of OECD FDI in developing countries: Insights from Bayesian model averaging," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1095851-109, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign Direct Investment; Country Default Risk;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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