IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/badest/0536.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Determinants of Trade Balance of Bangladesh: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • KHAN , M. ZAKIR SAADULLAH

    (Associate Professor, Department of Ec onomics, Comilla Univeristy, Bangladesh)

  • HOSSAIN, M. ISMAIL

    (Professor, Department of Economics, Jahangirnagar University, Dhaka, Bangladesh)

Abstract

Under the new perspective of the world economy, the relationship between the determinants and the overall trade balance of a country in conventional models may not necessarily be the same as with bilateral trade balance. This paper develops a new approach to trade balance modeling that captures the effects of the factors suggested by the conventional model and explores the dynamic relationship between variables of the new model. Using recently developed dynamic panel data analysis techniques, the approach is empirically tested for Bangladesh’s trade with its 50 major trading partners for over 26 years and finds the existence of cointegration, that is, stable long-run relationship between variables of the new trade balance model. Short-run dynamics also show convergence, using Unrestricted Error Correction Mechanism (UECM) and Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator.

Suggested Citation

  • Khan , M. Zakir Saadullah & Hossain, M. Ismail, 2012. "Determinants of Trade Balance of Bangladesh: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis," Bangladesh Development Studies, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), vol. 35(2), pages 45-65, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:badest:0536
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://bids.org.bd/uploads/publication/BDS/35/35-2/02_Determinants%20of%20Trade.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    2. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 597-625, June.
    3. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    4. Groen, Jan J J & Kleibergen, Frank, 2003. "Likelihood-Based Cointegration Analysis in Panels of Vector Error-Correction Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(2), pages 295-318, April.
    5. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    6. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    7. World Bank, 2007. "World Development Indicators 2007," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 8150.
    8. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 653-670, November.
    9. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:631-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Larsson, Rolf & Lyhagen, Johan, 1999. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Multivariate Panel Cointegration Models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 331, Stockholm School of Economics.
    11. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
    12. G. S. Maddala & Shaowen Wu, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 631-652, November.
    13. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    14. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:653-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Carlos A. CARRASCO & Edgar D. TOVAR-GARCIA, 2020. "Export Composition and the Eurozone Trade Balance in Manufacturing Goods," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 134-150, March.
    2. Linda Akoto & Daniel Sakyi, 2019. "Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of Trade Balance in Post-liberalization Ghana," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 54(3), pages 177-205, August.
    3. Mejía Méndez, Cinthya & Jáquez Polanco, Jaqueli & Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2017. "Determinantes del déficit comercial de la República Dominicana [Determinants of the trade deficit of the Dominican Republic]," MPRA Paper 81218, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Gulzar Ali & Ghulam Mustafa & Said Zamin Shah, 2020. "Performance of Agriculture Sector in Foreign Trade of Pakistan," Global Economics Review, Humanity Only, vol. 5(1), pages 12-23, March.
    5. Muzammil, Muhammad, 2020. "A Comparison of Agricultural, Industrial and Services Sector Impact on Trade Balance: A Case Study of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 95750, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Muhammad Shahid Hassan & Ayesha Wajid & Rukhsana Kalim, 2017. "Factors affecting trade deficit in Pakistan, India and Bangladesh," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 34(2), pages 283-304, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ronald MacDonald & Flávio Vieira, "undated". "A panel data investigation of real exchange rate misalignment and growth," Working Papers 2010_13, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    2. Gharehgozli, Orkideh, 2021. "An empirical comparison between a regression framework and the Synthetic Control Method," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 70-81.
    3. Sung, Bongsuk & Song, Woo-Yong & Park, Sang-Do, 2018. "How foreign direct investment affects CO2 emission levels in the Chinese manufacturing industry: Evidence from panel data," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 320-331.
    4. Alessio Ciarlone, 2019. "The relationship between financial development and growth: the case of emerging Europe," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 521, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Ardeshiri, Mansour & Moghaddasi, Reza & Yazdani, Saeed & Mohamadinejad, Amir, . "Trade Openness and Spatial Distribution of Manufacturing Industries: Iranian Provincial Evidence," Asian Journal of Applied Economics, Kasetsart University, Center for Applied Economics Research, vol. 26(1).
    6. Tarik Dogru & Umit Bulut & Ercan Sirakaya-Turk, 2021. "Modeling tourism demand: Theoretical and empirical considerations for future research," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(4), pages 874-889, June.
    7. Ardeshiri, Mansour & Moghaddasi, Reza & Yazdani, Saeed & Mohamadinejad, Amir, 2019. "Trade Openness and Spatial Distribution of Manufacturing Industries: Iranian Provincial Evidence," Asian Journal of Applied Economics/ Applied Economics Journal, Kasetsart University, Faculty of Economics, Center for Applied Economic Research, vol. 26(1), pages 21-44, June.
    8. Chen, Ping-Yu & Chen, Sheng-Tung & Hsu, Chia-Sheng & Chen, Chi-Chung, 2016. "Modeling the global relationships among economic growth, energy consumption and CO2 emissions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 420-431.
    9. Yongfu Huang, 2011. "Private investment and financial development in a globalized world," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 43-56, August.
    10. Ferreira, Cândida, 2020. "Globalisation and Economic Growth: A Panel Data Approach," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 73(2), pages 187-236.
    11. Breitung, Jörg & Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem, 2005. "Unit roots and cointegration in panels," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,42, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    12. Amri, Fethi, 2016. "The relationship amongst energy consumption, foreign direct investment and output in developed and developing Countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 694-702.
    13. Neelu Seetaram & Sylvain Petit, 2012. "Panel data analysis in Tourism Research," Post-Print hal-01831529, HAL.
    14. Dehghan Shabani, Zahra & Shahnazi, Rouhollah, 2019. "Energy consumption, carbon dioxide emissions, information and communications technology, and gross domestic product in Iranian economic sectors: A panel causality analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 1064-1078.
    15. Qu, Weihua & Qu, Guohua & Zhang, Xindong & Robert, Dixon, 2021. "The impact of public participation in environmental behavior on haze pollution and public health in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 319-335.
    16. Saadaoui, Jamel, 2012. "Déséquilibres globaux, taux de change d’équilibre et modélisation stock-flux cohérente [Global Imbalances, Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Stock-Flow Consistent Modelling]," MPRA Paper 51332, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. R. Golinelli & I. Mammi & A. Musolesi, 2018. "Parameter heterogeneity, persistence and cross-sectional dependence: new insights on fiscal policy reaction functions for the Euro area," Working Papers wp1120, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    18. Qamruzzaman, Md & Jianguo, Wei, 2020. "The asymmetric relationship between financial development, trade openness, foreign capital flows, and renewable energy consumption: Fresh evidence from panel NARDL investigation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 827-842.
    19. Suleman Sarwar & Rida Waheed & Mehnoor Amir & Muqaddas Khalid, 2018. "Role of Energy on Economy The Case of Micro to Macro Level Analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(4), pages 1905-1926.
    20. P K MISHRA & Manmohan MALL & B B PRADHAN, 2017. "Economic Growth, Structural Change And Intersectoral Linkages In Saarc Economies," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 17(2), pages 75-88.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade balance; Dynamic panel data;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F49 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Other

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:badest:0536. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Meftaur Rahman, Cheif Publication Officer, BIDS (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bidssbd.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.