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Investigation of the impact of uncertainty indices on Bitcoin volatility using the ARDL model

Author

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  • Pogorelova, Polina

    (HSE University, Moscow, Russian Federation)

Abstract

The article uses the ARDL model to study the impact of the VIX index and the indices of economic and market uncertainty based on data from the social network X (formerly Twitter, blocked in the Russian Federation) on the volatility of Bitcoin. To estimate the unobservable cryptocurrency volatility, the author uses a nonparametric estimator derived from 5-minute data on Bitcoin closing prices, considering adjustments if there are gaps within the day. The paper considers the data for the period from 02.01.2018 to 30.12.2022, divided into two half-periods: pre-COVID-19 period (from 02.01.2018 to 28.02.2020) and post-COVID-19 period (from 01.03.2020 to 31.12.2022). According to the results obtained by estimating the ARDL model at different half-periods, in the long term, there is a significant negative VIX index impact on the realized volatility of Bitcoin. This paper observed a short-term (instantaneous) significant positive effect on the realized volatility of Bitcoin for the index of market uncertainty TMU_ENG in the pre-COVID-19 period. The identified significant effects make it possible to use the VIX and TMU_ENG indices to improve the forecast quality in models for the volatility of the Bitcoin cryptocurrency.

Suggested Citation

  • Pogorelova, Polina, 2024. "Investigation of the impact of uncertainty indices on Bitcoin volatility using the ARDL model," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 74, pages 35-50.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0496
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bitcoin; cryptocurrency; realized volatility; ARDL model; uncertainty indices; COVID-19.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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