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L’union monétaire des pays du Conseil de coopération du golfe : viabilité et perspectives d’avenir

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  • Ben Abdesslem, Amel

    () (Laboratoire d’Analyse et de Recherche en Économie et Finance Internationales (Larefi), Université de Bordeaux)

Abstract

This article aims to assess the viability of the upcoming Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) monetary union. The common objective of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar was to establish a complete economic integration through the creation of a single currency by 2010. Following the temporary suspension of the unification process since May 2010 and the spreading phenomenon of euroscepticism, the present article examines the future prospects of the Gulf countries’ project, that nearly formed the second monetary union by size, by studying the economic structures of the GCC monarchies, the synchronization of their business cycles and the optimality of the currency area. The viability of the upcoming monetary union is also assessed through the generalized Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), to explain long-term exchange rate behavior. Résumé : Cet article a pour objectif d’évaluer la viabilité du projet d’unification des pays du Conseil de coopération du golfe Persique (CCG). L’objectif commun de l’Arabie saoudite, de Bahreïn, des Émirats arabes unis, du Koweït, d’Oman et du Qatar était d’établir une intégration économique complète par le biais de la création d’une monnaie unique à l’horizon 2010. Suite à la suspension du processus d’unification monétaire en mai 2010 et au regain de l’euroscepticisme, cet article étudie les perspectives d’avenir du projet des pays du golfe Persique qui s’apprêtaient à former la deuxième union monétaire mondiale par la taille, en étudiant les structures économiques des monarchies du CCG, la synchronisation de leurs cycles économiques et l’optimalité de la zone monétaire. La viabilité de la future union monétaire est également évaluée à travers la parité du pouvoir d’achat (PPA) généralisée, afin d’étudier le comportement de long terme des taux de change réels.

Suggested Citation

  • Ben Abdesslem, Amel, 2013. "L’union monétaire des pays du Conseil de coopération du golfe : viabilité et perspectives d’avenir," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 89(3), pages 191-206, Septembre.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:0090
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    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-1025, July.
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    4. Robert Barro & Silvana Tenreyro, 2007. "Economic Effects Of Currency Unions," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 45(1), pages 1-23, January.
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    6. Sturm, Michael & Siegfried, Nikolaus, 2005. "Regional monetary integration in the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council," Occasional Paper Series 31, European Central Bank.
    7. Enders, Walter & Hurn, Stan, 1994. "Theory and Tests of Generalized Purchasing-Power Parity: Common Trends and Real Exchange Rates in the Pacific Rim," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(2), pages 179-190, June.
    8. Belkacem Laabas and Imed Limam, "undated". "Are GCC Countries Ready for Currency Union?," API-Working Paper Series 0203, Arab Planning Institute - Kuwait, Information Center.
    9. Louis, Rosmy & Balli, Faruk & Osman, Mohammad, 2008. "Monetary Union Among Arab Gulf Cooperation Council (AGCC) Countries: Does the symmetry of shocks extend to the non-oil sector?," MPRA Paper 11611, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    11. Michael Sturm & Nikolaus Siegfried, 2005. "Regional monetary integration in the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council," Occasional Paper Series 31, European Central Bank.
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