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Stabilisation du climat et expansion nucléaire

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  • Bertrand Magné
  • Michel Moreaux

Abstract

[fre] Bertrand Magné Michel Moreaux Stabilisation du climat et expansion nucléaire. Cet article présente les résultats d'un modèle de simulation dynamique d'allocation optimale des ressources énergétiques primaires. Nous étudions la viabilité du déploiement de la capacité nucléaire qui permettrait de réduire les rejets de carbone et maintenir cette pollution en-deçà d'un seuil critique de concentration. L'énergie nucléaire, dont nous avons modélisé le cycle du combustible, se substitue aux énergies fossiles et assure la transition entre la situation présente, caractérisée par une utilisation intensive des ressources carbonées fossiles, et un futur assez éloigné où les seules énergies renouvelables propres, en loccurence l'énergie solaire, seront en mesure de satisfaire les besoins de la société. Nous mettons en évidence les termes de l'arbitrage entre la baisse sensible du prix du carbone permise par l'expansion nucléaire, et l'accumulation progressive des déchets ultimes qu'implique le développement de cette filière, déchets qui pourront à leur tour être réduits par l'introduction de réacteurs surgénérateurs. [eng] Climate Stabilisation and Nuclear Expansion. This article presents the results of a dynamic simulation model of optimal allocation of primary energy res- sources. We study the viability of the nuclear capacity deployment which would allow for a reduction in atmospheric carbon release, and would maintain this pollution below a critical concentration threshold. The nuclear energy, whose fuel cycle has been expli- citly modeled, replaces the fossil sources and makes the transition between the current situation, caracterised by an intensive use of carbon energy, and a fairly distant future where the only clean renewable sources would supply the society energy needs. We exhibit the trade-off between a sensitive carbon price reduction, allowed by the nuclear expansion, and the progressive accumulation of long-lived wastes inherent to nuclear power exploitation. We show that the volume of those wastes may be significantly reduced by the introduction of breeder reactors.

Suggested Citation

  • Bertrand Magné & Michel Moreaux, 2005. "Stabilisation du climat et expansion nucléaire," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 20(1), pages 181-233.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:rfreco:rfeco_0769-0479_2005_num_20_1_1568
    DOI: 10.3406/rfeco.2005.1568
    Note: DOI:10.3406/rfeco.2005.1568
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pindyck, Robert S., 1982. "Jointly produced exhaustible resources," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 291-303, December.
    2. Chakravorty, Ujjayant & Magne, Bertrand & Moreaux, Michel, 2006. "A Hotelling model with a ceiling on the stock of pollution," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2875-2904, December.
    3. Cropper, M. L., 1980. "Pollution aspects of nuclear energy use," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 334-352, December.
    4. Harold Hotelling, 1931. "The Economics of Exhaustible Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39, pages 137-137.
    5. Margaret E. Slade & Henry Thille, 1997. "Hotelling Confronts CAPM: A Test of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(3), pages 685-708, August.
    6. Olli Tahvonen, 1997. "Fossil Fuels, Stock Externalities, and Backstop Technology," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(4), pages 855-874, November.
    7. Marian Radetzki, 2000. "Coal or Nuclear in New Power Stations: The Political Economy of an Undesirable but Necessary Choice," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 135-147.
    8. Chakravorty, Ujjayant & Magné, Bertrand & Moreaux, Michel, 2004. "Plafond de concentration atmosphérique en carbone et substitutions entre ressources énergétiques," IDEI Working Papers 260, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Pierre Amigues & Ngo Van Long & Michel Moreaux, 2006. "Ressources naturelles, impatience et progrès technique," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 57(2), pages 185-218.

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