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Epargne privée, solde budgétaire et taux de change réel

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  • Laurent Maurin

Abstract

[fre] Afin de déterminer les taux de change réels d'équilibre de l'euro et du dollar, nous étudions le déficit public comme facteur de distorsion de change. Nous montrons la possibilité, à court et à moyen terme, de sur-réaction du taux de change réel à une variation du solde budgétaire. En intégrant cette variable au modèle du taux de change naturel, nous estimons alors la dynamique du dollar ainsi que celle d'un euro fictif que nous construisons. Pour cela, nous déterminons une variable approchant le taux de préférence pour le présent, variable exogène du modèle. [eng] Private saving, fiscal balance and real exchange rate.. . We develop a simple model which integrates the public deficit in an equilibrium exchange rate model framework. This allows us to expose the overshooting of the exchange rate following a variation of the fiscal balance. Integrating this variable into the NATREX model, we estimate the dollar and the euro dynamics, constucting a fictive euro and a natural saving rate which approximates the time preference.

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  • Laurent Maurin, 2001. "Epargne privée, solde budgétaire et taux de change réel," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 52(1), pages 117-133.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_2001_num_52_1_410303
    DOI: 10.3406/reco.2001.410303
    Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.2001.410303
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    1. Malcolm Knight & Paul Masson, 1988. "Fiscal Policies, Net Saving, and Real Exchange Rates: The United States, the Federal Republic of Germany, and Japan," NBER Chapters, in: International Aspects of Fiscal Policies, pages 21-72, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. John Williamson, 1994. "Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 17, October.
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