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Les déterminants à long terme des comptes externes brésiliens

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  • Octavio De Barros
  • Fernando Honorato Barbosa

Abstract

[eng] The long term determinants of the Brazilian foreign accounts . This article discusses the macroeconomic determinants of current account imbalances and analyses how these variables evolved in Brazilian economy recently. We also compare episodes of huge current account imbalances in selected developing countries to try to determine how long and to which level a country can sustain systematic deficits. Finally we simulate the path of future current account deficits in Brazil in the context of a necessary increase in potential GDP in the years ahead, concluding that Brazil will probably run moderate deficits to enhance its sustainable GDP growth. . Classification JEL : F2, F3, F43, O2, O54. [fre] Cet article discute les déterminants macroéconomiques des déséquilibres en compte courant et analyse la manière dont les variables ont évolué récemment dans l'économie brésilienne. Nous comparons également des épisodes de grands déséquilibres en compte courant dans des pays en voie de développement sélectionnés dans le but d’essayer de déterminer pour combien de temps et à quel niveau un pays peut soutenir des déficits systématiques. Pour finir, nous simulons la trajectoire des déficits en compte courant futurs au Brésil dans le contexte d’une hausse nécessaire du PIB potentiel dans les années à venir et nous arrivons à la conclusion que le Brésil va probablement encourir des déficits modérés pour augmenter la croissance soutenable de son PIB. . Classification JEL : F2, F3, F43, O2, O54.

Suggested Citation

  • Octavio De Barros & Fernando Honorato Barbosa, 2009. "Les déterminants à long terme des comptes externes brésiliens," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 95(2), pages 103-122.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:recofi:ecofi_0987-3368_2009_num_95_2_5347
    DOI: 10.3406/ecofi.2009.5347
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecofi.2009.5347
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chinn, Menzie D. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2003. "Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 47-76, January.
    2. Maria Milesi-Ferretti, Gian & Razin, Assaf, 1998. "Sharp reductions in current account deficits An empirical analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-5), pages 897-908, May.
    3. Milesi-Ferretti, G.M. & Razin, A., 1997. "Origins of Sharp Reductions in Current Account deficits: An Empirical Analysis," Papers 25-97, Tel Aviv.
    4. Hali J. Edison & Michael W. Klein & Luca Antonio Ricci & Torsten Sløk, 2004. "Capital Account Liberalization and Economic Performance: Survey and Synthesis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(2), pages 1-2.
    5. Mr. Paolo Mauro & Mr. Andrei A Levchenko, 2006. "Do Some Forms of Financial Flows Help Protect From Sudden Stops?," IMF Working Papers 2006/202, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Mr. Fabio Scacciavillani & Mr. Malcolm D. Knight, 1998. "Current Accounts: What Is Their Relevance for Economic Policymaking?," IMF Working Papers 1998/071, International Monetary Fund.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O2 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O2 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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