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Les régimes de caisse d’émission sont-ils performants ? Le cas de Hong-Kong

Listed author(s):
  • Yum K. Kwan
  • Francis T. Lui

[eng] Are currency boards effective ? The case of Hong Kong Because Hong Kong leaved then adopted again a currency board arrangement, it allows analysing macroeconomic impacts of this exchange rate regime. Author's empirical tests show that the impacts of supply chocks are less strong than demand chocks on currency board which could lead great volatility. A part of these good results can be explained by a stable budgetary policy. This analysis shows that the two thirds of the output's and inflation's volatility decrease is due to the currency board arrangement and the rest to the international situation. But this system doesn't solve monetary collapse. JEL classification : E42, E58, F41 [fre] Hong-Kong, parce que le territoire a abandonné puis adopté à nouveau une caisse d'émission, offre une bonne occasion de saisir les implications macroéconomiques de ce type de régime. Les tests empiriques, menés par les auteurs, indiquent que la caisse d'émission est moins sujette à des chocs d'offre mais qu'en revanche les chocs de demande sont susceptibles de produire une grande volatilité. Une part importante des bons résultats obtenus par Hong-Kong peur être attribuée à une politique budgétaire stable. Cette analyse montre que les deux-tiers de la réduction de la volatilité du produit et de l'inflation sont liés à l'adoption d'une caisse d'émission alors que le reste serait lié au contexte international. Le défaut du système est, en revanche, de ne pas apporter de solution lors d'un effondrement monétaire. Classification JEL : E42, E58, F41

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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue d'économie financière.

Volume (Year): 75 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 153-178

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Handle: RePEc:prs:recofi:ecofi_0987-3368_2004_num_75_2_4898
Note: DOI:10.3406/ecofi.2004.4898
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  1. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-16.
  2. John Williamson, 1995. "What Role of Currency Boards?," Peterson Institute Press: Policy Analyses in International Economics, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa40, February.
  3. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
  4. Bordo Michael D. & Kydland Finn E., 1995. "The Gold Standard As a Rule: An Essay in Exploration," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 423-464, October.
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