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Pour une stratégie de cible d'inflation dans la zone euro

  • Jean-Paul Pollin
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    [eng] For a strategy of inflation targeting in the euro zone . The transparency is favorable to the coordination of the microeconomic decisions and to the efficiency of the monetary regulation. We show that the current strategy of the ECB is weakly based in its conception and in its applications, the « two pillars » establishing questionable references and little used in practice. A monetary rule, or a device of inflation targeting, could return the ECB policy more understandable and more predictable. Finally we review the criticisms usually sent to the monetary rules, and show that they do not resist to an attentive analysis. Because of its big independence, the ECB would win to adopt a strategy of inflation targeting. . JEL classifications : E5, E52, E58 [fre] La transparence est favorable à la coordination des décisions microénomiques et à l’efficacité de la régulation monétaire. Nous montrons ainsi que la stratégie actuelle de la BCE est mal fondée dans sa conception et approximative dans ses applications : les « deux piliers » constituant des références contestables sur le fond et peu utilisées en pratique. L’adhésion à une règle monétaire, ou le recours à un dispositif de cible d’inflation, serait de nature à rendre la politique de la BCE plus compréhensible et plus prévisible. Enfin nous passons en revue les critiques habituellement adressées aux règles monétaires, et montrons qu’elles ne résistent pas à une analyse attentive. Du fait de sa jeunesse, mais aussi de sa grande indépendance, la BCE gagnerait beaucoup à adopter une stratégie de cible d’inflation. . Classification JEL : E5, E52, E58

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.3406/ecofi.2002.3767
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    Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue d'économie financière.

    Volume (Year): 65 (2002)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 39-68

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    Handle: RePEc:prs:recofi:ecofi_0987-3368_2002_num_65_1_3767
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecofi.2002.3767
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/ecofi

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    1. Svensson, Lars E.O., 1998. "Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule," Seminar Papers 646, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    2. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521788885 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Bernanke, Ben S. & Mihov, Ilian, 1997. "What does the Bundesbank target?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1025-1053, June.
    4. Michael Ehrmann and Frank Smets, 2001. "Uncertain Potential Output: Implications for Monetary Policy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 8, Society for Computational Economics.
    5. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 2139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Svensson, Lars E.O., 1997. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Seminar Papers 615, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    7. John B. Taylor, 1998. "An Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Working Papers 6768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Taylor, John B., 1998. "The Robustness and Efficiency of Monetary Policy Rules as Guidelines for Interest Rate Setting by the European Central Bank," Seminar Papers 649, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    9. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1, December.
    10. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Introduction to "Monetary Policy Rules"," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 1-14 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521783248 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Lorenzo Bini-Smaghi & Daniel Gros, 2001. "Is the ECB Sufficiently Accountable and Transparent?," Economics Working Papers 007, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes.
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