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Une méta-analyse de l’impact des subventions sur le prix mondial du coton

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  • David Guerreiro

Abstract

[eng] Despite the abundant literature on the impact of subsidies on world cotton prices, there is no consensus on the quantification of that impact. Our article describes a meta-analysis aimed at explaining the lack of consensus. We also identify the key factors needed to describe cotton-price dynamics, and report our results concerning the effect of subsidies. We show that the variations between studies are mainly due to the choice of elasticity values, the size of the subsidies, and inclusion of certain key factors. Effective modeling requires a precise estimation of elasticities and the inclusion of determinants of world cotton prices such as inventory levels and the price of polyester. [fre] Malgré le nombre important d’études sur les impacts des subventions sur le prix mondial du coton, il n’existe pas de consensus concernant la quantification de ces effets. L’objectif de cet article est de réaliser une méta-analyse capable d’expliquer la source de l’hétérogénéité des résultats, de donner des indications quant aux variables indispensables à la modélisation, mais aussi de présenter un chiffrage des effets des subventions. Nous montrons que les valeurs des élasticités, les montants des subventions et l'incorporation de certains facteurs-clés sont les sources principales des variations inter-études. Une modélisation appropriée requiert ainsi une estimation précise des élasticités et l’intégration de certains facteurs constitutifs du prix mondial du coton tels que les niveaux de stocks ou le prix du polyester.

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  • David Guerreiro, 2010. "Une méta-analyse de l’impact des subventions sur le prix mondial du coton," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 195(4), pages 111-125.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2010_num_195_4_8064
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.2010.8064
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2010.8064
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access

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