IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/prf/journl/v15y2021i1p36-48.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Are Real Estate Prices Evolving into an Asset Price Bubble?

Author

Listed:
  • Wolfgang Kloppenburg

    (University of Finance and Administration)

Abstract

The development of real estate prices is of extraordinary importance for the financial and economic system, as undesirable developments could endanger fi nancial stability – as seen in the fi nancial crisis of 2008 and 2009. This applies not only to speculators, but also to private households, which have to borrow to pay the purchase price. The market has been “fueled” in particular by the monetary policy of the central banks – expansion of the money supply and low interest rates. Investors are looking for investment opportunities due to the money glut, and the real estate market still promises a return. Furthermore, many people looking to build are willing to go into debt to buy a property. This demand ultimately has a driving eff ect on real estate prices. The aim of this paper is to compare and analyze the development of real estate prices in the most important OECD countries with those of Germany. A model of real estate prices is presented, which takes into account the most important indicators and provides information on when a price bubble exists. The model shows that asset price bubbles can be identifi ed in some OECD countries. In Germany, on the other hand, there are only signs of a price bubble in a few major cities. Since private debt is low, it does not seem to be a problem across the board in Germany. A general problem remains with regard to the timely detectability of price bubbles.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Kloppenburg, 2021. "Are Real Estate Prices Evolving into an Asset Price Bubble?," ACTA VSFS, University of Finance and Administration, vol. 15(1), pages 36-48.
    • Handle: RePEc:prf:journl:v:15:y:2021:i:1:p:36-48
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.vsfs.cz/periodika/acta-2021-1-02.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Isabel Schnabel, 2014. "Bubbles and Central Banks: Historical Perspectives," Working Papers 1411, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, revised 31 Oct 2014.
    2. Christophe Blot & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2017. "Does monetary policy generate asset price bubbles ?," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03471824, HAL.
    3. Robert J. Shiller, 2014. "Speculative Asset Prices (Nobel Prize Lecture)," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1936, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    4. Huber, Florian & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2020. "International Housing Markets, Unconventional Monetary Policy, And The Zero Lower Bound," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(4), pages 774-806, June.
    5. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Claus Michelsen, 2019. "Zehn Jahre nach dem großen Knall: wie ist es um die Stabilität der internationalen Immobilienmärkte bestellt? [Ten years after a Big Bang: How stable are the international housing markets?]," Zeitschrift für Immobilienökonomie (German Journal of Real Estate Research), Springer;Gesellschaft für Immobilienwirtschaftliche Forschung e. V., vol. 5(1), pages 67-87, November.
    6. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Claus Michelsen, 2019. "Das Risiko einer Immobilienpreisblase ist in Deutschland sowie in den meisten OECD-Ländern hoch," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 86(32), pages 547-555.
    7. Robert J. Shiller, 2014. "Speculative Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(6), pages 1486-1517, June.
    8. Christophe Blot & Fabien Labondance & Paul Hubert, 2017. "Does monetary policy generate asset price bubbles ?," Working Papers hal-03399707, HAL.
    9. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2011. "Monetary Policy Strategy: Lessons from the Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Claus Michelsen, 2018. "Anzeichen für neue Immobilienpreisblase in einigen OECD-Ländern – Gefahr in Deutschland geringer," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 85(30/31), pages 657-667.
    11. Christophe Blot, 2017. "Does Monetary Policy generate Asset Price Booms and Busts?," Post-Print hal-01667204, HAL.
    12. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2geqol5jud8hgonsak4roj21gh is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Gilles, Christian & LeRoy, Stephen F, 1992. "Bubbles and Charges," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 33(2), pages 323-339, May.
    14. Engsted, Tom & Hviid, Simon J. & Pedersen, Thomas Q., 2016. "Explosive bubbles in house prices? Evidence from the OECD countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 14-25.
    15. William R. White, 2006. "Is price stability enough?," BIS Working Papers 205, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Claus Michelsen, 2017. "Keine Immobilienpreisblase in Deutschland – aber regional begrenzte Übertreibungen in Teilmärkten," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 84(25), pages 503-513.
    17. Gregory Bauer, 2014. "International House Price Cycles, Monetary Policy and Risk Premiums," Staff Working Papers 14-54, Bank of Canada.
    18. Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Claus Michelsen, 2019. "Zehn Jahre nach dem großen Knall: wie ist es um die Stabilität der internationalen Immobilienmärkte bestellt? [Ten years after a Big Bang: How stable are the international housing markets?]," Zeitschrift für Immobilienökonomie (German Journal of Real Estate Research), Springer;Gesellschaft für Immobilienwirtschaftliche Forschung e. V., vol. 5(1), pages 67-87, November.
    2. Uwe Vollmer, 2022. "Monetary policy or macroprudential policies: What can tame the cycles?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 1510-1538, December.
    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/74362fq3f99s299n07e84dlcib is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance & Xavier Ragot, 2017. "Financial stability and the ECB," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/35ph3mv7tn8, Sciences Po.
    5. Christophe Blot & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2020. "The asymmetric effects of monetary policy on stock price bubbles," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03403075, HAL.
    6. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/35ph3mv7tn80ur0ii4gg6m5tir is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Akaki Tsomaia, 2021. "Asset bubbles, financial sector, and current challenges to regulatory framework," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 901-925, October.
    8. Tom Engsted, 2016. "Fama On Bubbles," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 370-376, April.
    9. ÅžimÅŸek, Alp, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Financial Speculation," CEPR Discussion Papers 15733, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Benigno Pierpaolo & Canofari Paolo & Di Bartolomeo Giovanni & Messori Marcello, 2020. "The ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme: Theory, effects, and risks," wp.comunite 00147, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
    11. Basse, Tobias & Klein, Tony & Vigne, Samuel A. & Wegener, Christoph, 2021. "U.S. stock prices and the dot.com-bubble: Can dividend policy rescue the efficient market hypothesis?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    12. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance & Xavier Ragot, 2017. "Financial stability and the ECB," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/35ph3mv7tn8, Sciences Po.
    13. J. Sebastian Amador-Torres & Jose Eduardo Gomez-Gonzalez & Sebastian Sanin-Restrepo, 2017. "I know what you did during the last bubble: Determinants of housing bubbles' duration in OECD countries," Borradores de Economia 1005, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    14. Q. Akram & Gunnar Bårdsen & Kjersti-Gro Lindquist, 2007. "Pursuing financial stability under an inflation-targeting regime," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 131-153, January.
    15. Kveta Kubatova, 2009. "Issues of tax burden measuring using tax quota," ACTA VSFS, University of Finance and Administration, vol. 3(2), pages 106-115.
    16. Blot, Christophe & Creel, Jérôme & Hubert, Paul & Labondance, Fabien & Saraceno, Francesco, 2015. "Assessing the link between price and financial stability," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 71-88.
    17. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications," CAMA Working Papers 2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    18. Souza, Thiago de Oliveira, 2020. "Dollar carry timing," Discussion Papers on Economics 10/2020, University of Southern Denmark, Department of Economics.
    19. Fendoğlu, Salih, 2017. "Credit cycles and capital flows: Effectiveness of the macroprudential policy framework in emerging market economies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 110-128.
    20. An-Ming Wang, 2016. "Agglomeration and simplified housing boom," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 53(5), pages 936-956, April.
    21. Zhou, Liyun & Huang, Jialiang, 2020. "Contagion of future-level sentiment in Chinese Agricultural Futures Markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    22. German Forero-Laverde, 2016. "Are All Booms and Busts Created Equal? A New Methodology for Understanding Bull and Bear Stock Markets," UB School of Economics Working Papers 2016/339, University of Barcelona School of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    asset price bubbles; monetary policy; price bubble index;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prf:journl:v:15:y:2021:i:1:p:36-48. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Magdalena Šebková (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vsfspcz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.