IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0308244.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

What drives the effectiveness of social distancing in combating COVID-19 across U.S. states?

Author

Listed:
  • Mu-Jeung Yang
  • Maclean Gaulin
  • Nathan Seegert
  • Yang Fan

Abstract

We propose a new theory of information-based voluntary social distancing in which people’s responses to disease prevalence depend on the credibility of reported cases and fatalities and vary locally. We embed this theory into a new pandemic prediction and policy analysis framework that blends compartmental epidemiological/economic models with Machine Learning. We find that lockdown effectiveness varies widely across US States during the early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that voluntary social distancing is higher in more informed states, and increasing information could have substantially changed social distancing and fatalities.

Suggested Citation

  • Mu-Jeung Yang & Maclean Gaulin & Nathan Seegert & Yang Fan, 2025. "What drives the effectiveness of social distancing in combating COVID-19 across U.S. states?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 20(5), pages 1-35, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0308244
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0308244
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0308244
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0308244&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0308244?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James H. Stock, 2020. "Data Gaps and the Policy Response to the Novel Coronavirus," NBER Working Papers 26902, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. David Berger & Kyle Herkenhoff & Chengdai Huang & Simon Mongey, 2022. "Testing and Reopening in an SEIR Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 43, pages 1-21, January.
    3. Goolsbee, Austan & Syverson, Chad, 2021. "Fear, lockdown, and diversion: Comparing drivers of pandemic economic decline 2020," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Çakmaklı, Cem & Demiralp, Selva & Özcan, Şebnem Kalemli & Yeşiltaş, Sevcan & Yıldırım, Muhammed A., 2023. "COVID-19 and emerging markets: A SIR model, demand shocks and capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    2. Łukasz Rachel, 2020. "An Analytical Model of Covid-19 Lockdowns," Discussion Papers 2029, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    3. Brodeur, Abel & Clark, Andrew E. & Fleche, Sarah & Powdthavee, Nattavudh, 2021. "COVID-19, lockdowns and well-being: Evidence from Google Trends," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    4. Xiao Chen & Hanwei Huang & Jiandong Ju & Ruoyan Sun & Jialiang Zhang, 2022. "Endogenous cross-region human mobility and pandemics," CEP Discussion Papers dp1860, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    5. Hortaçsu, Ali & Liu, Jiarui & Schwieg, Timothy, 2021. "Estimating the fraction of unreported infections in epidemics with a known epicenter: An application to COVID-19," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 220(1), pages 106-129.
    6. Daron Acemoglu & Victor Chernozhukov & Iván Werning & Michael D. Whinston, 2021. "Optimal Targeted Lockdowns in a Multigroup SIR Model," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 487-502, December.
    7. Checo Ariadne & Grigoli Francesco & Mota Jose M., 2022. "Assessing Targeted Containment Policies to Fight COVID-19," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(1), pages 159-196, January.
    8. Martin Bodenstein & Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Guerrieri, 2022. "Social distancing and supply disruptions in a pandemic," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(2), pages 681-721, May.
    9. Balázs Égert & Yvan Guillemette & Murtin Fabrice & David Turner, 2021. "Walking the Tightrope: Avoiding a Lockdown While Containing the Virus," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 22(03), pages 34-40, May.
    10. Brodeur, Abel & Cook, Nikolai & Wright, Taylor, 2021. "On the effects of COVID-19 safer-at-home policies on social distancing, car crashes and pollution," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    11. Granja, João & Makridis, Christos & Yannelis, Constantine & Zwick, Eric, 2022. "Did the paycheck protection program hit the target?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 725-761.
    12. Dizioli, Allan & Pinheiro, Roberto, 2021. "Information and inequality in the time of a pandemic," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    13. de Montjoye, Yves-Alexandre & Ramadorai, Tarun & Valletti, Tommaso & Walther, Ansgar, 2021. "Privacy, adoption, and truthful reporting: A simple theory of contact tracing applications," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    14. Andrew Atkeson & Michael Droste & Michael J. Mina & James H. Stock, 2020. "Economic Benefits of COVID-19 Screening Tests," Staff Report 616, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    15. Eichenbaum, Martin S. & Rebelo, Sergio & Trabandt, Mathias, 2022. "The macroeconomics of testing and quarantining," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    16. Garriga, Carlos & Manuelli, Rody & Sanghi, Siddhartha, 2022. "Optimal management of an epidemic: Lockdown, vaccine and value of life," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    17. Lesley Chiou & Catherine Tucker, 2020. "Social Distancing, Internet Access and Inequality," NBER Working Papers 26982, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Cesar Calderon & Albert G. Zeufack & Gerard Kambou & Calvin Z. Djiofack & Megumi Kubota & Vijdan Korman & Catalina Cantu Canales, "undated". "Africa's Pulse, No. 21, Spring 2020 [Africa's Pulse]," World Bank Publications - Reports 33541, The World Bank Group.
    19. Muhammed A. Yildirim & Cem Cakmakli & Selva Demiralp & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Sevcan Yesiltas, 2021. "The Economic Case for Global Vaccinations: An Epidemiological Model with International Production Networks," CID Working Papers 390, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    20. Mitman, Kurt & Hanley, Douglas & Bognanni, Mark & Kolliner, Daniel, 2020. "Economics and Epidemics: Evidence from an Estimated Spatial Econ-SIR Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 15310, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0308244. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.