The short- and long-run effect of human capital on income inequality: Empirical evidence in the ASEAN region

Human capital is a nation’s primary source of inner strength to achieve sustainable economic growth and development. Meanwhile, income inequality is a critical issue preventing sustainable economic growth and social transformation, especially in developing countries. This paper investigates the effect of human capital on income inequality in both the short and long term using the mean group, pooled mean group, and threshold regressions for the ASEAN-7 (including Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam) from 1992 to 2018. The paper develops a theoretical linkage between human capital and income inequality by combining the learning theory and the Kuznets hypothesis. This linkage is then tested using data from the ASEAN countries. Findings from the paper indicate that human capital reduces income inequality in the short run in the ASEAN countries. However, the effect is reverted in the long run, suggesting that human capital may increase the income gap in these countries. Particularly, the inverted U-shaped relationship between human capital and income inequality is established for the ASEAN countries whose GDP per capita is lower than USD 8.2 thousand per year. In contrast, the U-shaped relationship is found for the countries with income per capital of more than USD 8.2 thousand. All these findings suggest that social policies targeting reducing income inequality should be prioritized and stay at the centre of any economic policies to achieve sustainable economic growth and development in the ASEAN countries.