Will R&D make investors more tolerant? Analysis based on the performance forecast of Chinese listed companies

In the era of innovation dividends, whether investors, as the main participants in the capital market, can tolerate enterprise innovation activities is the key to whether the capital market can help enterprises innovate. This paper takes the listed companies of Shanghai and Shenzhen A-shares in China that disclosed quantitative performance forecasts from 2016 to 2021 as samples, obtains the market reaction of performance forecasts through the event study method and uses them as proxy variables of investors’ short-term performance expectations, and uses multiple regression analysis to explore the impact of corporate R&D on investors’ short-term performance expectations. The results are as follows: (1) corporate R&D investment significantly reduces investors’ short-term performance expectations (that is, investors have a significant tolerance effect on enterprises with higher R&D investment); (2) the increase in the shareholding ratio of institutional investors weakens the tolerance effect; and (3) with the implementation of China’s innovation-driven strategy, the tolerance effect of its capital market on enterprise R&D gradually increases, especially for high-tech companies, but has a low tolerance effect on state-owned companies’ R&D risk. The results show that investors in China’s capital market are not completely rational in their response to corporate R&D, and investors are willing to bear more short-term performance losses for high R&D investment, which is consistent with prospect theory.