Spatiotemporal characteristics and influencing factors of carbon emissions from civil buildings: Evidence from urban China

Carbon emissions from civil buildings refer to the carbon emissions generated during the operation of civil buildings. With the continuous development of the urban economy and the improvement of people’s living standards, this part of carbon emission puts tremendous pressure on China to achieve the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutral. In the context of rapid urbanization, studying the spatiotemporal characteristics and influencing factors of the carbon emissions from civil buildings have strong practical significance for China to achieve the "dual carbon" goal. Based on the emission data from 104 prefecture-level cities in China, we examine the spatiotemporal characteristics of the civil building carbon emissions from the perspectives of temporal evolution trend, spatial distribution and its dynamic evolution, spatial difference and its decomposition, and spatial autocorrelation characteristics. Finally, we reveal the influencing factors of the carbon emissions from civil buildings using static panel data models and spatial dynamic panel data models. The results of the study show that: (1) During the sample period, the carbon emissions from civil buildings have increased year by year. The civil building carbon emissions have become an important source of China’s overall carbon emissions. Realizing energy saving and emission reduction in the operational stage of civil buildings is crucial to realizing China’s "dual carbon" goal. (2) According to the estimated results, there is a significant inverted U-shaped non-linear relationship between urbanization and civil building carbon emissions. Most Chinese cities are located in the upward part of the inverted U-shaped curve at present. Thus, the traditional economic growth model characterized by high energy consumption and high emission during rapid urbanization should be abandoned to reduce the carbon emissions from civil buildings. (3) Technological progress and fixed asset investment can effectively reduce the carbon emissions from civil buildings. At the same time, the level of marketization and social consumption expenditure positively affect the carbon emissions from civil buildings. It is necessary to improve the relevant market mechanisms, policy subsidies, and other means to encourage the application of green energy-saving technologies in civil buildings. Also, it is needed to guide the urban residents’ consumption structure and lifestyle in a low-carbon direction, to reduce the energy consumption and carbon emissions during the operation of civil buildings.