IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/palcom/v12y2025i1d10.1057_s41599-025-04378-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bayesian neural network modelling for estimating ecological footprints and blue economy sustainability across G20 nations

Author

Listed:
  • Muhammad Akhtar

    (Jiangsu University)

  • Jian Xu

    (Qingdao Agricultural University)

  • Umair Kashif

    (Fuzhou University)

  • Kishwar Ali

    (European University of Lefke)

  • Hafiz Muhammad Naveed

    (Shenzhen University)

  • Muhammad Haris

    (Bahauddin Zakariya University)

Abstract

The term “blue economy” has become synonymous with generating income from maritime pursuits while protecting and improving marine environments. Oceans provide both solutions and boosts to a sustainable environment and economy, given the growing need for resources to accomplish the global food, water, and energy nexus and the rapid reduction in land-based supplies. However, the ecological footprint (EF) is one of the significant factors that may influence the sustained capacity of oceans to deliver economic and environmental value. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the impact of ecological footprints on the sustainability of the blue economy (BE) while controlling for greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), population growth (POT), and economic growth (GDP). The study applied Bayesian neural network (BNN), OLS, fixed effects, and a two-step generalized method of moments on the panel dataset of G20 countries over the period 2000 to 2021. The study shows that the ecological footprint exerts a negative influence on the blue economy, while greenhouse gas emissions, population growth, and economic growth exhibit a positive impact. This study, by realizing the importance of blue economy development in various nations, suggests that all nations must incorporate ocean strategies within their national climate pledges in order to effectively meet the sustainable development goals (SDGs), especially those outlined in SDG 14 (Life Below Water).

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Akhtar & Jian Xu & Umair Kashif & Kishwar Ali & Hafiz Muhammad Naveed & Muhammad Haris, 2025. "Bayesian neural network modelling for estimating ecological footprints and blue economy sustainability across G20 nations," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(1), pages 1-14, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:palcom:v:12:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1057_s41599-025-04378-x
    DOI: 10.1057/s41599-025-04378-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/s41599-025-04378-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/s41599-025-04378-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. González-Val, Rafael & Pueyo, Fernando, 2019. "Natural resources, economic growth and geography," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 150-159.
    2. Chen, Xiaoguang & Cui, Xiaomeng & Gao, Jing, 2023. "Differentiated agricultural sensitivity and adaptability to rising temperatures across regions and sectors in China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    3. de Groot, Rudolf S. & Wilson, Matthew A. & Boumans, Roelof M. J., 2002. "A typology for the classification, description and valuation of ecosystem functions, goods and services," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 393-408, June.
    4. Bozoklu, Seref & Yilanci, Veli & Gorus, Muhammed Sehid, 2020. "Persistence in per capita energy consumption: A fractional integration approach with a Fourier function," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    5. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    6. Akhtar, Muhammad & Haris, Muhammad & Naveed, Hafiz Muhammad & Rasool, Yasir & Al-Faryan, Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh, 2024. "Electricity shortfalls and financial leverage of listed firms in Pakistan," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    7. Balland, Pierre-Alexandre & Broekel, Tom & Diodato, Dario & Giuliani, Elisa & Hausmann, Ricardo & O'Clery, Neave & Rigby, David, 2022. "Reprint of The new paradigm of economic complexity," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(8).
    8. Kaplinsky, Raphael & Kraemer-Mbula, Erika, 2022. "Innovation and uneven development: The challenge for low- and middle-income economies," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(2).
    9. Mohammed Ismail Alhussam & Hongxing Yao & Omar Abu Risha, 2021. "The impact of scholarship inflows on achieving food security: what can Bayesian networks tell us?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(22), pages 2486-2499, May.
    10. Dong, Kangyin & Hochman, Gal & Zhang, Yaqing & Sun, Renjin & Li, Hui & Liao, Hua, 2018. "CO2 emissions, economic and population growth, and renewable energy: Empirical evidence across regions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 180-192.
    11. Muhammad, Sulaman & Pan, Yanchun & Ke, Xiao & Agha, Mujtaba Hassan & Borah, Prasad Siba & Akhtar, Muhammad, 2023. "European transition toward climate neutrality: Is renewable energy fueling energy poverty across Europe?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 181-190.
    12. Hochman, Gal & Zilberman, David, 2021. "Optimal environmental taxation in response to an environmentally-unfriendly political challenger," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    13. repec:ags:aaea22:335522 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Roxana Maria Bădîrcea & Alina Georgiana Manta & Nicoleta Mihaela Florea & Silvia Puiu & Liviu Florin Manta & Marius Dalian Doran, 2021. "Connecting Blue Economy and Economic Growth to Climate Change: Evidence from European Union Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-12, July.
    15. Marin OPRIÈšESCU & Roxana Maria BÄ‚DÃŽRCEA & Nicoleta Mihaela FLOREA & Alina Georgiana MANTA & Silvia PUIU & Dalian Marius DORAN, 2020. "The Impact of Blue Economy and Economic Growth on Climate Changes in Baltic Countries," Finante - provocarile viitorului (Finance - Challenges of the Future), University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(22), pages 7-20, November.
    16. David Lin & Laurel Hanscom & Adeline Murthy & Alessandro Galli & Mikel Evans & Evan Neill & Maria Serena Mancini & Jon Martindill & Fatime-Zahra Medouar & Shiyu Huang & Mathis Wackernagel, 2018. "Ecological Footprint Accounting for Countries: Updates and Results of the National Footprint Accounts, 2012–2018," Resources, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-22, September.
    17. Baldwin, Elizabeth & Cai, Yongyang & Kuralbayeva, Karlygash, 2020. "To build or not to build? Capital stocks and climate policy∗," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    18. Jonas Meckling & Bentley B. Allan, 2020. "The evolution of ideas in global climate policy," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(5), pages 434-438, May.
    19. Christopher B. Barrett, 2021. "Overcoming Global Food Security Challenges through Science and Solidarity," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(2), pages 422-447, March.
    20. Muhammad Akhtar & Kong Yusheng & Muhammad Haris & Qurat Ul Ain & Hafiz Mustansar Javaid, 2022. "Impact of financial leverage on sustainable growth, market performance, and profitability," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 737-774, May.
    21. Schrank, William E., 2005. "The Newfoundland fishery: ten years after the moratorium," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 407-420, September.
    22. Yudan Kong & Jiaguo Liu & Jihong Chen, 2023. "Exploring the carbon abatement measures in maritime supply chain: a scenario-based system dynamics approach," International Journal of Production Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 61(18), pages 6131-6152, September.
    23. Houkai Wei & Yan Zhang, 2017. "Analysis of Impact of Urbanization on Environmental Quality in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 25(2), pages 85-106, March.
    24. Ahmed, Khalid & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2016. "Dynamics between economic growth, labor, capital and natural resource abundance in Iran: An application of the combined cointegration approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 213-221.
    25. Wang, Qiang & Hu, Sailan & Li, Rongrong, 2024. "Could information and communication technology (ICT) reduce carbon emissions? The role of trade openness and financial development," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(3).
    26. Hongyan Zhang & Suisui Chen, 2022. "Overview of research on marine resources and economic development," Marine Economics and Management, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 5(1), pages 69-83, May.
    27. Qiang Wang & Xiaowei Wang & Rongrong Li & Xueting Jiang, 2024. "Reinvestigating the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) of carbon emissions and ecological footprint in 147 countries: a matter of trade protectionism," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-17, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mohammad Naim Azimi & Mohammad Mafizur Rahman, 2024. "Examining the environmental Phillips curve hypothesis in G7 nations: critical insights from wavelet coherence and wavelet causality analysis," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 58(6), pages 5683-5713, December.
    2. Mustafa Orhan Özer, 2022. "The Relationship between Economic Growth and Unemployment Rate: Fractional Frequency Fourier ARDL Bounds Test Approach," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 72(72-1), pages 269-292, June.
    3. Chen, Ming & Chen, Junying, 2023. "Natural resources extraction in emerging economies: Does it promote sustainable development or crowd-out real sector?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    4. Aljarallah, Ruba A., 2021. "An assessment of the economic impact of natural resource rents in kingdom of Saudi Arabia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    5. Nawaz, Kishwar & Lahiani, Amine & Roubaud, David, 2019. "Natural resources as blessings and finance-growth nexus: A bootstrap ARDL approach in an emerging economy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 277-287.
    6. Guo, Yating & Wong, Wing-Keung & Su, Nan & Ghardallou, Wafa & Orosco Gavilán, Juan Carlos & Uyen, Pham Thi Minh & Cong, Phan The, 2023. "Resource curse hypothesis and economic growth: A global analysis using bootstrapped panel quantile regression analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    7. Shengmiao Han & Badrul Hisham Bin Kamaruddin & Xing Shi, 2025. "The Intertwined Threads of Blue Economy, Inclusive Growth, and Environmental Sustainability in Transition Economies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-24, January.
    8. Gómez-Baggethun, Erik & de Groot, Rudolf & Lomas, Pedro L. & Montes, Carlos, 2010. "The history of ecosystem services in economic theory and practice: From early notions to markets and payment schemes," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(6), pages 1209-1218, April.
    9. Zhao, Ziming & Chen, Jinyu, 2024. "Non-linear effects of three core mineral resources, energy uncertainty, and inclusive digitalization on economic growth: A comparative analysis of US and China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    10. Ampofo, Gideon Kwaku Minua & Cheng, Jinhua & Asante, Daniel Akwasi & Bosah, Philip, 2020. "Total natural resource rents, trade openness and economic growth in the top mineral-rich countries: New evidence from nonlinear and asymmetric analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    11. Su, Chi-Wei & Pang, Li-Dong & Tao, Ran & Shao, Xuefeng & Umar, Muhammad, 2022. "Renewable energy and technological innovation: Which one is the winner in promoting net-zero emissions?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    12. Stojkoski, Viktor & Hidalgo, César, 2025. "Optimizing Economic Complexity," TSE Working Papers 24-1623, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    13. Khan, Muhammad Salar, 2022. "Absorptive capacities and economic growth in low- and middle-income economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 156-188.
    14. Can Zhang & Umra Waris & Leren Qian & Muhammad Irfan & Mubeen Abdur Rehman, 2024. "Unleashing the dynamic linkages among natural resources, economic complexity, and sustainable economic growth: Evidence from G‐20 countries," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(4), pages 3736-3752, August.
    15. Ruba A. Aljarallah & Andrew Angus, 2020. "Dilemma of Natural Resource Abundance: A Case Study of Kuwait," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(1), pages 21582440198, January.
    16. Ullah, Atta & Nobanee, Haitham & Ullah, Saif & Iftikhar, Huma, 2024. "Renewable energy transition and regional integration: Energizing the pathway to sustainable development," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    17. Waliu Olawale Shittu & Hammed Oluwaseyi Musibau & Sodiq Olaiwola Jimoh, 2022. "The complementary roles of human capital and institutional quality on natural resource - FDI—economic growth Nexus in the MENA region," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(6), pages 7936-7957, June.
    18. Nielsen, Max & Ravensbeck, Lars & Nielsen, Rasmus, 2014. "Green growth in fisheries," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 43-52.
    19. Song, Malin & Xie, Qianjiao & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Yao, Xin, 2023. "Economic growth and security from the perspective of natural resource assets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    20. Oluwaseyi Musibau, Hammed & Olawale Shittu, Waliu & Yanotti, Maria, 2022. "Natural resources endowment: What more does West Africa need in order to grow?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:palcom:v:12:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1057_s41599-025-04378-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.nature.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.