IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/onb/oenbfi/y2018iq1-18b1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A cost-risk analysis of sovereign debt composition in CESEE

Author

Listed:

Abstract

Drawing on a newly compiled structural debt database, this article examines sovereign interest rate exposure in ten countries in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE). The average maturity of sovereign debt has lengthened over time and converged across CESEE, indicating that the likelihood of sudden changes in interest rate has decreased since 2009. Using a simple theoretical model, this article identifies the drivers of this development, highlighting the role of debt managers’ risk preferences.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Beer, 2018. "A cost-risk analysis of sovereign debt composition in CESEE," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q1-18, pages 6-25.
    • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbfi:y:2018:i:q1-18:b:1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.oenb.at/dam/jcr:1a9ed2db-a6b2-47b6-a58a-b7eb1029c295/feei_2018_q1_studies_beer.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dimitri Vayanos & Jean‐Luc Vila, 2021. "A Preferred‐Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(1), pages 77-112, January.
    2. Wolswijk, Guido & de Haan, Jakob, 2005. "Government debt management in the euro area - recent theoretical developments and changes in practices," Occasional Paper Series 25, European Central Bank.
    3. J. M. Culbertson, 1957. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 71(4), pages 485-517.
    4. Jaramillo, Laura & Weber, Anke, 2013. "Bond yields in emerging economies: It matters what state you are in," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 169-185.
    5. D’Amico, Stefania & King, Thomas B., 2013. "Flow and stock effects of large-scale treasury purchases: Evidence on the importance of local supply," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 425-448.
    6. Robin Greenwood & Dimitri Vayanos, 2014. "Bond Supply and Excess Bond Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(3), pages 663-713.
    7. Mr. Axel Schimmelpfennig & Nouriel Roubini & Paolo Manasse, 2003. "Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises," IMF Working Papers 2003/221, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Robert J. Barro, 1999. "Notes on Optimal Debt Management," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 281-289, November.
    9. Carlo Altavilla & Giacomo Carboni & Roberto Motto, 2021. "Asset Purchase Programs and Financial Markets: Lessons from the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(70), pages 1-48, October.
    10. Alessandro Missale, "undated". "Optimal Debt Management with a Stability and Growth Pact," Working Papers 166, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    11. Jagjit S Chadha & Philip Turner & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2013. "The interest rate effects of government debt maturity," BIS Working Papers 415, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Poghosyan, Tigran, 2014. "Long-run and short-run determinants of sovereign bond yields in advanced economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 100-114.
    13. Melecky, Martin, 2007. "A cross-country analysis of public debt management strategies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4287, The World Bank.
    14. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "Government Debt Issuance in the Euro Area: The Impact of the Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2011/021, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Steve Ambler & Fabio Rumler, 2016. "The Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: An Event and Econometric Study," Working Paper series 16-27, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    16. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    17. Liu, Sheen & Shi, Jian & Wang, Junbo & Wu, Chunchi, 2009. "The determinants of corporate bond yields," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 85-109, February.
    18. Robin Greenwood & Dimitri Vayanos, 2010. "Price Pressure in the Government Bond Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 585-590, May.
    19. Fabrizio Zampolli, 2012. "Sovereign debt management as an instrument of monetary policy: an overview," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Threat of fiscal dominance?, volume 65, pages 97-118, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Jack Meaning & Feng Zhu, 2012. "The impact of Federal Reserve asset purchase programmes: another twist," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Markus Eller & Johannes Holler, 2018. "Digging into the composition of government debt in CESEE: a risk evaluation," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q2-18, pages 56-80.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Plessen-Mátyás, Katharina & Kaufmann, Christoph & von Landesberger, Julian, 2021. "Funding behaviour of debt management offices and the ECB’s public sector purchase programme," Working Paper Series 2552, European Central Bank.
    2. Jappelli, Ruggero & Pelizzon, Loriana & Subrahmanyam, Marti G., 2023. "Quantitative easing, the repo market, and the term structure of interest rates," SAFE Working Paper Series 395, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    3. christiaan Pattipeilohy, 2016. "A comparative analysis of developments in central bank balance sheet composition," BIS Working Papers 559, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. NAKAJIMA, Jouchi, 2024. "Central bank balance sheets and long-term interest rates : Revisiting Japan's unconventional monetary policy experience," Discussion Paper Series 758, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    5. Robin Greenwood & Samuel Hanson & Dimitri Vayanos, 2023. "Supply and Demand and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 31879, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Schlepper, Kathi & Riordan, Ryan & Hofer, Heiko & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2017. "Scarcity effects of QE: A transaction-level analysis in the Bund market," Discussion Papers 06/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Jagjit S Chadha & Philip Turner & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2013. "The interest rate effects of government debt maturity," BIS Working Papers 415, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Evangelia A. Georgiou, 2022. "The effects of Federal Reserve's quantitative easing and balance sheet normalization policies on long-term interest rates," Working Papers 299, Bank of Greece.
    9. Joseph E. Gagnon, 2016. "Quantitative Easing: An Underappreciated Success," Policy Briefs PB16-4, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    10. Breckenfelder, Johannes & De Falco, Veronica, 2024. "Investor heterogeneity and large-scale asset purchases," Working Paper Series 2938, European Central Bank.
    11. Michael E. Cahill & Stefania D'Amico & Canlin Li & John S. Sears, 2013. "Duration risk versus local supply channel in Treasury yields: evidence from the Federal Reserve's asset purchase announcements," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-35, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Narayan Bulusu & Sermin Gungor, 2018. "Government of Canada Securities in the Cash, Repo and Securities Lending Markets," Discussion Papers 18-4, Bank of Canada.
    13. De Santis, Roberto A. & Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric, 2017. "Flow effects of central bank asset purchases on euro area sovereign bond yields: evidence from a natural experiment," Working Paper Series 2052, European Central Bank.
    14. Christiaan Pattipeilohy, 2016. "A comparative analysis of developments in central bank balance sheet composition," DNB Working Papers 510, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    15. Jagjit S. Chadha & Philip Turner & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2013. "The ties that bind: monetary policy and government debt management," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 29(3), pages 548-581, AUTUMN.
    16. Iryna Kaminska & Gabriele Zinna, 2020. "Official Demand for U.S. Debt: Implications for U.S. Real Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(2-3), pages 323-364, March.
    17. Stéphane Guibaud & Yves Nosbusch & Dimitri Vayanos, 2013. "Bond Market Clienteles, the Yield Curve, and the Optimal Maturity Structure of Government Debt," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(8), pages 1914-1961.
    18. D’Amico, Stefania & King, Thomas B., 2013. "Flow and stock effects of large-scale treasury purchases: Evidence on the importance of local supply," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 425-448.
    19. Lemke, Wolfgang & Werner, Thomas, 2020. "Dissecting long-term Bund yields in the run-up to the ECB’s public sector purchase programme," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    20. Jason Allen & Jakub Kastl & Milena Wittwer, 2020. "Primary Dealers and the Demand for Government Debt," Working Papers 2020-27, Princeton University. Economics Department..

    More about this item

    Keywords

    debt management; interest rate risk; financial vulnerability; CESEE region;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:onb:oenbfi:y:2018:i:q1-18:b:1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Elisabeth Beckmann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/oenbbat.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.