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The Relationship Between Government Financial Condition and Expected Tax Rates Reflected in Municipal Bond Yields

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  • Park, Sangkyun

Abstract

Analyzes the United States government's financial position (measured by debt, budget deficits, and inflation, 1965-1994) to determine links between expected changes in tax rates implied by yields on short-term and long-term municipal bonds. Also discusses relationships between expected tax rate and the federal debt.

Suggested Citation

  • Park, Sangkyun, 1997. "The Relationship Between Government Financial Condition and Expected Tax Rates Reflected in Municipal Bond Yields," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 50(1), pages 23-38, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ntj:journl:v:50:y:1997:i:1:p:23-38
    DOI: 10.1086/NTJ41789241
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Trzcinka, Charles A, 1982. "The Pricing of Tax-Exempt Bonds and the Miller Hypothesis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(4), pages 907-923, September.
    2. Kochin, Levis A & Parks, Richard W, 1988. " Was the Tax-Exempt Bond Market Inefficient or Were Future Expected Tax Rates Negative?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(4), pages 913-931, September.
    3. Poterba, James M., 1989. "Tax reform and the market for tax-exempt debt," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 537-562, August.
    4. Miller, Merton H, 1977. "Debt and Taxes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(2), pages 261-275, May.
    5. Saikkonen, Pentti, 1991. "Asymptotically Efficient Estimation of Cointegration Regressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker & Shu‐Chun Susan Yang, 2013. "Fiscal Foresight and Information Flows," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(3), pages 1115-1145, May.
    2. Eric M. Leeper & Alexander W. Richter & Todd B. Walker, 2012. "Quantitative Effects of Fiscal Foresight," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 115-144, May.
    3. Maria Cornachione Kula, 2019. "The behavior of U.S. States’ debts and deficits," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 43(3), pages 267-289.
    4. Slemrod, Joel & Greimel, Timothy, 1999. "Did Steve Forbes scare the US municipal bond market?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 81-96, October.
    5. Tomasz Piotr Wisniewski & Peter M. Jackson, 2021. "Government debt expansion and stock returns," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5017-5030, October.
    6. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker & Shu-Chun Susan Yang, 2011. "Foresight and Information Flows," NBER Working Papers 16951, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Stoian, Andreea & Iorgulescu, Filip, 2020. "Fiscal policy and stock market efficiency: An ARDL Bounds Testing approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 406-416.
    8. Dybowski, T. Philipp, 2015. "Tracing the Role of Foresight on the Effects of U.S. Tax Policy: Evidence from a Time-Varying SVAR," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113049, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    9. Anthony M. Diercks & William Waller, 2017. "Taxes and the Fed : Theory and Evidence from Equities," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-104, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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