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Uncovering the Effects of Government Spending through Tax Foresight

Author

Listed:
  • Guido Ascari
  • Anna Florio
  • Alessandro Gobbi

Abstract

Employing two different effective measures of future tax expectations in a local projection analysis on post-war U.S. data reveals that the effects of an anticipated government spending shock depend solely on expectations about future taxes. In contrast, tax foresight does not affect the transmission of unanticipated shocks. When agents expect taxes to rise (fall), the economy response to an anticipated government spending shock aligns with a monetary (fiscal) regime. Hence, tax foresight is a sufficient statistic to identify the effects of anticipated government spending shocks. We argue that this is consistent with recent literature on monetary and fiscal policy interaction.

Suggested Citation

  • Guido Ascari & Anna Florio & Alessandro Gobbi, 2024. "Uncovering the Effects of Government Spending through Tax Foresight," Working Papers 821, DNB.
    • Handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:821
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2013. "Corrigendum: Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 320-322, August.
    2. Park, Sangkyun, 1997. "The Relationship Between Government Financial Condition and Expected Tax Rates Reflected in Municipal Bond Yields," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 50(1), pages 23-38, March.
    3. Park, Sangkyun, 1997. "The Relationship Between Government Financial Condition and Expected Tax Rates Reflected in Municipal Bond Yields," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 50(1), pages 23-38, March.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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