IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nea/journl/y2011i9p72-97.html

Revealed Preferences of the Bank of Russia. Simulation Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Karev, M.

    (HSE, Moscow, Russia)

Abstract

The paper aims at reconstructing the regulator’s loss function both qualitatively and quantitatively. The main idea is to deduct from the observed behavior of the monetary policy instrument the underlying preferences that explain such behavior. In order to obtain quantitative results we use the simulation model of the Russian economy. The method consists in embeding in this model the Central Bank’s preferences modeled by different types of loss functions and choose the one that does the job best, i.e. one for which the implied preference parameter behaves most smoothly. One of the main findings is that the Bank of Russia acts as if it had two conflicting targets: inflation stabilization and low real exchange rate, or, alternatively, high foreign reserve growth. It is shown that the revealed preferences together with the simulation model can be used for forecasting the medium run dynamics of inflation and nominal exchange rate. It is also shown that commonly used quadratic loss function that models inflation and real sector stabilization is not relevant in depicting the Bank’s behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Karev, M., 2011. "Revealed Preferences of the Bank of Russia. Simulation Approach," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, issue 9, pages 72-97.
    • Handle: RePEc:nea:journl:y:2011:i:9:p:72-97
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.econorus.org/repec/journl/2011-9-72-97r.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kirill Sosunov & Oleg Zamulin, 2007. "Monetary Policy in an Economy Sick with Dutch Disease," Working Papers w0101, New Economic School (NES).
    2. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    3. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    4. Ball, Laurence, 1995. "Time-consistent policy and persistent changes in inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 329-350, November.
    5. Карев М. Г., 2009. "Инфляция, Реальный Обменный Курс И Денежная Политика В Экономике С Ограниченной Эластичностью Потока Капитала По Процентной Ставке," Higher School of Economics Economic Journal Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное автономное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», vol. 13(3), pages 329-359.
    6. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    7. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    8. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777, June.
    2. Marvin Goodfriend, 2007. "How the World Achieved Consensus on Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(4), pages 47-68, Fall.
    3. Frederick van der Ploeg, 2005. "Back to Keynes?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 51(4), pages 777-822.
    4. Michael Hatcher & Patrick Minford, 2016. "Stabilisation Policy, Rational Expectations And Price-Level Versus Inflation Targeting: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 327-355, April.
    5. Jeanfils, P., 2001. "A Guided Tour of the World of Rational Expectations Models and Optimal Policies," Papers 16, Warwick - Development Economics Research Centre.
    6. Ion STURZU & Alexandru GRIBINCEA & Silvestru Maximilian, 2014. "The Credit Crunch: Reflections, Analysis And Suggestions," ECONOMY AND SOCIOLOGY: Theoretical and Scientifical Journal, Socionet;Complexul Editorial "INCE", issue 1, pages 112-120.
    7. Adnan Haider Bukhari & Safdar Ullah Khan, 2008. "A Small Open Economy DSGE Model for Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 963-1008.
    8. Pelin Ilbas, 2006. "Optimal Monetary Policy rules for the Euro area in a DSGE framework," Working Papers of Department of Economics, Leuven ces0613, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Department of Economics, Leuven.
    9. Patrick Lünnemann & Abdelaziz Rouabah, 2003. "Règle de Taylor: estimation et interprétation pour la zone euro et pour le Luxembourg," BCL working papers 9, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    10. Orlando Gomes, 2010. "Nonlinear Inflation Expectations and Endogenous Fluctuations," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 4(3), pages 263-280, November.
    11. Lars E. O. Svensson & Michael Woodford, 2004. "Implementing Optimal Policy through Inflation-Forecast Targeting," NBER Chapters, in: The Inflation-Targeting Debate, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Adnan Haider & Musleh ud Din & Ejaz Ghani, 2012. "Monetary Policy, Informality and Business Cycle Fluctuations in a Developing Economy Vulnerable to External Shocks," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 609-681.
    13. Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2015. "The agent-based Solow growth model with endogenous business cycles," Economics Working Papers 2015-01, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    14. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2004. "Prudent Monetary Policy: Applications of Cautious LQG Control and Prediction," CEPR Discussion Papers 4222, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Shawn Chen‐Yu Leu & Jeffrey Sheen, 2006. "Asymmetric Monetary Policy in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 82(s1), pages 85-96, September.
    16. Michael Woodford, 2008. "How Important Is Money in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1561-1598, December.
    17. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5221 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Barbara Annicchiarico & Fabio Di Dio & Francesco Felici & Francesco Nucci, 2014. "Assessing Policy Reforms for Italy Using ITEM and QUEST III," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, issue 3, pages 211-244, July-Sept.
    19. Jensen Henrik, 2011. "Estimated Interest Rate Rules: Do they Determine Determinacy Properties?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-22, May.
    20. Shaun de Jager & Michael Johnston & Rudi Steinbach, 2015. "A Revised Quarterly Projection Model for South Africa," Working Papers 6839, South African Reserve Bank.
    21. Sheen, Jeffrey & Wang, Ben Zhe, 2016. "Animal spirits and optimal monetary policy design in the presence of labour market frictions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 898-912.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nea:journl:y:2011:i:9:p:72-97. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Alexey Tcharykov (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nearuea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.