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What Determined the Depth of Recession?

  • Gurvich, E.

    (Economic Expert Group, Moscow, Russia)

  • Prilepskiy, I.

    (Economic Expert Group, Moscow, Russia)

Registered author(s):

    The factors that determined substantial cross-country variation of output decline during the recent recession are discussed. The regression analysis is performed for the sample of 172 economies, as well as for the sub-samples of developing and oil-exporting economies. Regression results indicate that three distinct factors had a significant impact on output decline, viz. financial shocks, trade shocks, and precrisis economic imbalances. Explanatory power of the econometric model obtained is fairly large. The contribution of crisis decline factors to the depth of recession is calculated for the developing and emerging economies on average, as well as for Russia. The results of the analysis are used to provide recommendations for reducing the vulnerability of Russian economy to future crises.

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    File URL: http://www.econorus.org/repec/journl/2010-8-55-79r.pdf
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    Article provided by New Economic Association in its journal Journal of the New Economic Association.

    Volume (Year): (2010)
    Issue (Month): 8 ()
    Pages: 55-79

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    Handle: RePEc:nea:journl:y:2010:i:8:p:55-79
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    1. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2010. "The Cross-Country Incidence of the Global Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 7954, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Kareem Ismail & Rabah Arezki, 2010. "Boom-Bust Cycle, Asymmetrical Fiscal Response and the Dutch Disease," IMF Working Papers 10/94, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Rose, Andrew K & Spiegel, Mark, 2010. "Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the Crisis: An Update," CEPR Discussion Papers 7901, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mitali Das & Hamid Faruqee, 2010. "The Initial Impact of the Crisis on Emerging Market Countries," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(1 (Spring), pages 263-323.
    5. Berkmen, S. Pelin & Gelos, Gaston & Rennhack, Robert & Walsh, James P., 2012. "The global financial crisis: Explaining cross-country differences in the output impact," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 42-59.
    6. Reinhart, Carmen & Felton, Andrew, 2008. "The First Global Financial Crisis of the 21st Century," MPRA Paper 11862, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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