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Living within the safe and just Earth system boundaries for blue water

Author

Listed:
  • Ben Stewart-Koster

    (Griffith University)

  • Stuart E. Bunn

    (Griffith University)

  • Pamela Green

    (City University of New York)

  • Christopher Ndehedehe

    (Griffith University)

  • Lauren S. Andersen

    (Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • David I. Armstrong McKay

    (University of Exeter
    Stockholm University
    Georesilience Analytics)

  • Xuemei Bai

    (Australian National University)

  • Fabrice DeClerck

    (Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT
    EAT)

  • Kristie L. Ebi

    (University of Washington)

  • Christopher Gordon

    (University of Ghana)

  • Joyeeta Gupta

    (University of Amsterdam
    IHE Delft Institute for Water Education)

  • Syezlin Hasan

    (Griffith University)

  • Lisa Jacobson

    (Future Earth Secretariat)

  • Steven J. Lade

    (Stockholm University
    Australian National University
    Future Earth Secretariat)

  • Diana Liverman

    (University of Arizona)

  • Sina Loriani

    (Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Awaz Mohamed

    (Universität Hamburg)

  • Nebojsa Nakicenovic

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • David Obura

    (CORDIO East Africa)

  • Dahe Qin

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    China Meteorological Administration
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Crelis Rammelt

    (University of Amsterdam)

  • Juan C. Rocha

    (Stockholm University
    Future Earth Secretariat)

  • Johan Rockström

    (Member of the Leibniz Association
    University of Potsdam)

  • Peter H. Verburg

    (Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL)
    Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

  • Caroline Zimm

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

Abstract

Safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for surface water and groundwater (blue water) have been defined for sustainable water management in the Anthropocene. Here we assessed whether minimum human needs could be met with surface water from within individual river basins alone and, where this is not possible, quantified how much groundwater would be required. Approximately 2.6 billion people live in river basins where groundwater is needed because they are already outside the surface water ESB or have insufficient surface water to meet human needs and the ESB. Approximately 1.4 billion people live in river basins where demand-side transformations would be required as they either exceed the surface water ESB or face a decline in groundwater recharge and cannot meet minimum needs within the ESB. A further 1.5 billion people live in river basins outside the ESB, with insufficient surface water to meet minimum needs, requiring both supply- and demand-side transformations. These results highlight the challenges and opportunities of meeting even basic human access needs to water and protecting aquatic ecosystems.

Suggested Citation

  • Ben Stewart-Koster & Stuart E. Bunn & Pamela Green & Christopher Ndehedehe & Lauren S. Andersen & David I. Armstrong McKay & Xuemei Bai & Fabrice DeClerck & Kristie L. Ebi & Christopher Gordon & Joyee, 2024. "Living within the safe and just Earth system boundaries for blue water," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 7(1), pages 53-63, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natsus:v:7:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41893-023-01247-w
    DOI: 10.1038/s41893-023-01247-w
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    References listed on IDEAS

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