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Cost and emissions pathways towards net-zero climate impacts in aviation

Author

Listed:
  • Lynnette Dray

    (University College London)

  • Andreas W. Schäfer

    (University College London)

  • Carla Grobler

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Christoph Falter

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Florian Allroggen

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Marc E. J. Stettler

    (Imperial College London)

  • Steven R. H. Barrett

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

Abstract

Aviation emissions are not on a trajectory consistent with Paris Climate Agreement goals. We evaluate the extent to which fuel pathways—synthetic fuels from biomass, synthetic fuels from green hydrogen and atmospheric CO2, and the direct use of green liquid hydrogen—could lead aviation towards net-zero climate impacts. Together with continued efficiency gains and contrail avoidance, but without offsets, such an energy transition could reduce lifecycle aviation CO2 emissions by 89–94% compared with year-2019 levels, despite a 2–3-fold growth in demand by 2050. The aviation sector could manage the associated cost increases, with ticket prices rising by no more than 15% compared with a no-intervention baseline leading to demand suppression of less than 14%. These pathways will require discounted investments on the order of US$0.5–2.1 trillion over a 30 yr period. However, our pathways reduce aviation CO2-equivalent emissions by only 46–69%; more action is required to mitigate non-CO2 impacts.

Suggested Citation

  • Lynnette Dray & Andreas W. Schäfer & Carla Grobler & Christoph Falter & Florian Allroggen & Marc E. J. Stettler & Steven R. H. Barrett, 2022. "Cost and emissions pathways towards net-zero climate impacts in aviation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(10), pages 956-962, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:12:y:2022:i:10:d:10.1038_s41558-022-01485-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01485-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Katharine Ricke & Laurent Drouet & Ken Caldeira & Massimo Tavoni, 2018. "Country-level social cost of carbon," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(10), pages 895-900, October.
    2. Lynnette Dray & Khan Doyme, 2019. "Carbon leakage in aviation policy," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(10), pages 1284-1296, November.
    3. Pindyck, Robert S., 2019. "The social cost of carbon revisited," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 140-160.
    4. Peter H. Howard & Thomas Sterner, 2017. "Few and Not So Far Between: A Meta-analysis of Climate Damage Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 68(1), pages 197-225, September.
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