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Extreme sea levels at different global warming levels

Author

Listed:
  • Claudia Tebaldi

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

  • Roshanka Ranasinghe

    (IHE Delft institute for Water Education
    Deltares
    University of Twente)

  • Michalis Vousdoukas

    (Joint Research Centre (JRC))

  • D. J. Rasmussen

    (Princeton University)

  • Ben Vega-Westhoff

    (University of Illinois)

  • Ebru Kirezci

    (University of Melbourne)

  • Robert E. Kopp

    (Rutgers University)

  • Ryan Sriver

    (University of Illinois)

  • Lorenzo Mentaschi

    (Joint Research Centre (JRC)
    University of Bologna)

Abstract

The Paris agreement focused global climate mitigation policy on limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Consequently, projections of hazards and risk are increasingly framed in terms of global warming levels rather than emission scenarios. Here, we use a multimethod approach to describe changes in extreme sea levels driven by changes in mean sea level associated with a wide range of global warming levels, from 1.5 to 5 °C, and for a large number of locations, providing uniform coverage over most of the world’s coastlines. We estimate that by 2100 ~50% of the 7,000+ locations considered will experience the present-day 100-yr extreme-sea-level event at least once a year, even under 1.5 °C of warming, and often well before the end of the century. The tropics appear more sensitive than the Northern high latitudes, where some locations do not see this frequency change even for the highest global warming levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudia Tebaldi & Roshanka Ranasinghe & Michalis Vousdoukas & D. J. Rasmussen & Ben Vega-Westhoff & Ebru Kirezci & Robert E. Kopp & Ryan Sriver & Lorenzo Mentaschi, 2021. "Extreme sea levels at different global warming levels," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(9), pages 746-751, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:11:y:2021:i:9:d:10.1038_s41558-021-01127-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01127-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. A. Slangen & M. Carson & C. Katsman & R. van de Wal & A. Köhl & L. Vermeersen & D. Stammer, 2014. "Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 124(1), pages 317-332, May.
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