IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v176y2023i9d10.1007_s10584-023-03598-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Future changes in rainy season characteristics over East China under continuous warming

Author

Listed:
  • Jinling Piao

    (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Wen Chen

    (Yunnan University
    Yunnan University)

  • Jin-Soo Kim

    (School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong)

  • Wen Zhou

    (Fudan University)

  • Shangfeng Chen

    (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Peng Hu

    (Yunnan University
    Yunnan University)

  • Xiaoqing Lan

    (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

The summer rainfall amount over East China is expected to increase along with a strengthening of the East Asian summer monsoon in a warmer climate. However, how the seasonality of precipitation will respond to global warming remains uncertain and is closely related to monsoon circulation. Here, we project future changes in multiple intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics over East China under 1.5 °C, 2 °C, 2.5 °C, and 3 °C of global warming above pre-industrial levels based on coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 multi-model projections. Both the onset and cessation dates over South China are likely to be delayed in a warmer climate, resulting in a later shift of the rainy season. In contrast, advanced cessation dates are projected over Northeast China with high model consensus. As for rainfall characteristics within the rainy season, total rainy season rainfall is expected to increase over the whole East China domain, with remarkable enhancement of heavy rainfall intensity. Further analysis indicates that continuous warming over a 1.5 °C warmer climate is projected to further increase total rainy season rainfall and enhance heavy rainfall intensity, with a magnitude at least twice as large with additional warming of 0.5 to 1.5 °C. Also, changes in cessation dates over South and Northeast China are projected to be enhanced significantly. These results together indicate the vital need to slow down global warming to reduce potential adverse impacts on agricultural and socioeconomic development.

Suggested Citation

  • Jinling Piao & Wen Chen & Jin-Soo Kim & Wen Zhou & Shangfeng Chen & Peng Hu & Xiaoqing Lan, 2023. "Future changes in rainy season characteristics over East China under continuous warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(9), pages 1-21, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:176:y:2023:i:9:d:10.1007_s10584-023-03598-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03598-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-023-03598-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-023-03598-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Min-Hee Lee & Chang-Hoi Ho & Jinwon Kim & Chang-Keun Song, 2012. "Assessment of the changes in extreme vulnerability over East Asia due to global warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(2), pages 301-321, July.
    2. N. Fauchereau & S. Trzaska & M. Rouault & Y. Richard, 2003. "Rainfall Variability and Changes in Southern Africa during the 20th Century in the Global Warming Context," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 29(2), pages 139-154, June.
    3. Jascha Lehmann & Dim Coumou & Katja Frieler, 2015. "Erratum to: increased record-breaking precipitation events under global warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(4), pages 517-518, October.
    4. Jascha Lehmann & Dim Coumou & Katja Frieler, 2015. "Increased record-breaking precipitation events under global warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(4), pages 501-515, October.
    5. Lawrence R. Mudryk & Jackie Dawson & Stephen E. L. Howell & Chris Derksen & Thomas A. Zagon & Mike Brady, 2021. "Impact of 1, 2 and 4 °C of global warming on ship navigation in the Canadian Arctic," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(8), pages 673-679, August.
    6. Xiaojun Guo & Jianbin Huang & Yong Luo & Zongci Zhao & Ying Xu, 2016. "Projection of precipitation extremes for eight global warming targets by 17 CMIP5 models," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(3), pages 2299-2319, December.
    7. Wenxia Zhang & Tianjun Zhou & Liwei Zou & Lixia Zhang & Xiaolong Chen, 2018. "Reduced exposure to extreme precipitation from 0.5 °C less warming in global land monsoon regions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-8, December.
    8. Claudia Tebaldi & Roshanka Ranasinghe & Michalis Vousdoukas & D. J. Rasmussen & Ben Vega-Westhoff & Ebru Kirezci & Robert E. Kopp & Ryan Sriver & Lorenzo Mentaschi, 2021. "Extreme sea levels at different global warming levels," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(9), pages 746-751, September.
    9. Yi He & Desmond Manful & Rachel Warren & Nicole Forstenhäusler & Timothy J. Osborn & Jeff Price & Rhosanna Jenkins & Craig Wallace & Dai Yamazaki, 2022. "Quantification of impacts between 1.5 and 4 °C of global warming on flooding risks in six countries," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(1), pages 1-21, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carl-Friedrich Schleussner & Joeri Rogelj & Michiel Schaeffer & Tabea Lissner & Rachel Licker & Erich M. Fischer & Reto Knutti & Anders Levermann & Katja Frieler & William Hare, 2016. "Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(9), pages 827-835, September.
    2. Nkongho Ayuketang Arreyndip, 2021. "Identifying agricultural disaster risk zones for future climate actions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(12), pages 1-16, December.
    3. Clyde E. Goulden & Jerry Mead & Richard Horwitz & Munhtuya Goulden & Banzragch Nandintsetseg & Sabrina McCormick & Bazartseren Boldgiv & Peter S. Petraitis, 2016. "Interviews of Mongolian herders and high resolution precipitation data reveal an increase in short heavy rains and thunderstorm activity in semi-arid Mongolia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 136(2), pages 281-295, May.
    4. Haixin Liu & Anbing Zhang & Tao Jiang & Haitao Lv & Xinxia Liu & Hefeng Wang, 2016. "The Spatiotemporal Variation of Drought in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region (BTHMR) Based on the Modified TVDI," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(12), pages 1-15, December.
    5. Michael Berlemann & Daniela Wenzel, 2018. "Precipitation and Economic Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 7258, CESifo.
    6. Berlemann, Michael & Eurich, Marina, 2021. "Natural hazard risk and life satisfaction – Empirical evidence for hurricanes," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    7. Zhiqi Yang & Gabriele Villarini, 2020. "On the role of increased CO2 concentrations in enhancing the temporal clustering of heavy precipitation events across Europe," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1455-1472, October.
    8. Yuan-Chih Su & Bo-Jein Kuo, 2023. "Risk Assessment of Rice Damage Due to Heavy Rain in Taiwan," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-19, March.
    9. Michael Berlemann & Thi Xuyen Tran, 2020. "Climate-Related Hazards and Internal Migration Empirical Evidence for Rural Vietnam," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 385-409, July.
    10. Isnaini Isnaini & Yudhistira Nugraha & Niranjan Baisakh & Nono Carsono, 2023. "Toward Food Security in 2050: Gene Pyramiding for Climate-Smart Rice," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-35, September.
    11. Kai Kornhuber & Corey Lesk & Carl F. Schleussner & Jonas Jägermeyr & Peter Pfleiderer & Radley M. Horton, 2023. "Risks of synchronized low yields are underestimated in climate and crop model projections," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    12. Antonio Menéndez Suárez-Inclán & Cristina Allende-Prieto & Jorge Roces-García & Juan P. Rodríguez-Sánchez & Luis A. Sañudo-Fontaneda & Carlos Rey-Mahía & Felipe P. Álvarez-Rabanal, 2022. "Development of a Multicriteria Scheme for the Identification of Strategic Areas for SUDS Implementation: A Case Study from Gijón, Spain," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-20, March.
    13. Daniel Amoak & Isaac Luginaah & Gordon McBean, 2022. "Climate Change, Food Security, and Health: Harnessing Agroecology to Build Climate-Resilient Communities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-15, October.
    14. Christian Unterberger, 2018. "How Flood Damages to Public Infrastructure Affect Municipal Budget Indicators," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 5-20, April.
    15. Dominik Traxl & Niklas Boers & Aljoscha Rheinwalt & Bodo Bookhagen, 2021. "The role of cyclonic activity in tropical temperature-rainfall scaling," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
    16. Haoyang Du & Chen Zhou & Haoqing Tang & Xiaolong Jin & Dengshuai Chen & Penghui Jiang & Manchun Li, 2021. "Simulation and estimation of future precipitation changes in arid regions: a case study of Xinjiang, Northwest China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(3), pages 1-21, August.
    17. Demetrios E. Tsesmelis & Christos A. Karavitis & Panagiotis D. Oikonomou & Stavros Alexandris & Constantinos Kosmas, 2018. "Assessment of the Vulnerability to Drought and Desertification Characteristics Using the Standardized Drought Vulnerability Index (SDVI) and the Environmentally Sensitive Areas Index (ESAI)," Resources, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-19, December.
    18. Andre D. L. Zanchetta & Paulin Coulibaly, 2022. "Hybrid Surrogate Model for Timely Prediction of Flash Flood Inundation Maps Caused by Rapid River Overflow," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-23, January.
    19. Sidney Michelini & Barbora Šedová & Jacob Schewe & Katja Frieler, 2023. "Extreme weather impacts do not improve conflict predictions in Africa," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
    20. Jorge Sepúlveda-Velásquez & Pablo Tapia-Griñen & Boris Pastén-Henríquez, 2023. "Financial effects of natural disasters: a bibliometric analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 118(3), pages 2691-2710, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:176:y:2023:i:9:d:10.1007_s10584-023-03598-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.