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Impact of 1, 2 and 4 °C of global warming on ship navigation in the Canadian Arctic

Author

Listed:
  • Lawrence R. Mudryk

    (Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada)

  • Jackie Dawson

    (University of Ottawa)

  • Stephen E. L. Howell

    (Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada)

  • Chris Derksen

    (Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada)

  • Thomas A. Zagon

    (Canadian Ice Service, Environment and Climate Change Canada)

  • Mike Brady

    (Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada)

Abstract

Climate change-driven reductions in sea ice have facilitated increased shipping traffic volumes across the Arctic. Here, we use climate model simulations to investigate changing navigability in the Canadian Arctic for major trade routes and coastal community resupply under 1, 2 and 4 °C of global warming above pre-industrial levels, on the basis of operational Polar Code regulations. Profound shifts in ship-accessible season length are projected across the Canadian Arctic, with the largest increases in the Beaufort region (100–200 d at 2 °C to 200–300 d at 4 °C). Projections along the Northwest Passage and Arctic Bridge trade routes indicate 100% navigation probability for part of the year, regardless of vessel type, above 2 °C of global warming. Along some major trade routes, substantial increases to season length are possible if operators assume additional risk and operate under marginally unsafe conditions. Local changes in accessibility for maritime resupply depend strongly on community location.

Suggested Citation

  • Lawrence R. Mudryk & Jackie Dawson & Stephen E. L. Howell & Chris Derksen & Thomas A. Zagon & Mike Brady, 2021. "Impact of 1, 2 and 4 °C of global warming on ship navigation in the Canadian Arctic," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(8), pages 673-679, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:11:y:2021:i:8:d:10.1038_s41558-021-01087-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01087-6
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    Cited by:

    1. Goldstein, Michael A. & Lynch, Amanda H. & Li, Xueke & Norchi, Charles H., 2022. "Sanctions or sea ice: Costs of closing the Northern Sea Route," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    2. Xueke Li & Amanda H. Lynch, 2023. "New insights into projected Arctic sea road: operational risks, economic values, and policy implications," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(4), pages 1-16, April.
    3. Tom Spencer & Alexandre K. Magnan & Simon Donner & Matthias Garschagen & James Ford & Virginie K. E. Duvat & Colette C. C. Wabnitz, 2024. "Habitability of low-lying socio-ecological systems under a changing climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(1), pages 1-19, January.
    4. Kelly Kapsar & Grant Gunn & Lawson Brigham & Jianguo Liu, 2023. "Mapping vessel traffic patterns in the ice-covered waters of the Pacific Arctic," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(7), pages 1-17, July.
    5. Jinling Piao & Wen Chen & Jin-Soo Kim & Wen Zhou & Shangfeng Chen & Peng Hu & Xiaoqing Lan, 2023. "Future changes in rainy season characteristics over East China under continuous warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(9), pages 1-21, September.

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