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Recent slowing of Arctic sea ice melt tied to multidecadal NAO variability

Author

Listed:
  • Cen Wang

    (The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)

  • Hui Su

    (The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)

  • Chengxing Zhai

    (The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)

  • Jianqiu Zheng

    (University of Science and Technology of China
    University of Science and Technology of China)

  • Shiwei Yu

    (The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)

  • Huisi Mo

    (The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)

  • Yanjia Wang

    (The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)

  • Linwei Jiang

    (University of Science and Technology of China)

Abstract

The reduction of Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) is a key indicator of global warming. In September 2012, SIC reached its lowest recorded value. Since then, sea ice melt has slowed down, showing a linear trend of only −0.4±6.8%/decade from 2012 to 2023, compared to −11.3±3.3%/decade from 1996 to 2011. Here, we demonstrate that the recent slowdown in September sea ice melt is closely coupled with the multi-decadal variability of the preceding summer North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which has transitioned from the lowest point of its negative phase in the early 2010s to a positive phase. During this shift, decreased heat and moisture, along with reduced downward longwave radiation, have contributed to offsetting the long-term decline, leading to a slowdown in Arctic sea ice melting. Additionally, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation plays a primary role in driving the interdecadal variability of the NAO and Arctic sea ice by modulating wave-mean flow interactions.

Suggested Citation

  • Cen Wang & Hui Su & Chengxing Zhai & Jianqiu Zheng & Shiwei Yu & Huisi Mo & Yanjia Wang & Linwei Jiang, 2025. "Recent slowing of Arctic sea ice melt tied to multidecadal NAO variability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-63520-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-63520-0
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