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Greenhouse warming and internal variability increase extreme and central Pacific El Niño frequency since 1980

Author

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  • Ruyu Gan

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Qi Liu

    (Nanjing University
    Nanjing University)

  • Gang Huang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Kaiming Hu

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology)

  • Xichen Li

    (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

El Niño has been recorded to change its properties since the 1980s, characterized by more common extreme El Niño and Central Pacific (CP) El Niño events. However, it is still unclear whether such change is externally forced or part of the natural variability. Here, we find that the frequency of the extreme and CP El Niño events also increased during the period 1875–1905, when the anthropogenic CO2 concentration was relatively lower, but with a positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Models and palaeoclimate proxies reveal that a positive AMO enhances the zonal sea surface temperature gradient in the CP, which strengthens zonal advective feedback, favoring extreme and CP El Niño development. Moreover, we estimate that internal variability contributed to ~65% of the increasingly extreme and CP El Niño events, while anthropogenic forcing has made our globe experience ~1 more extreme and ~2 more CP events over the past four decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Ruyu Gan & Qi Liu & Gang Huang & Kaiming Hu & Xichen Li, 2023. "Greenhouse warming and internal variability increase extreme and central Pacific El Niño frequency since 1980," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-36053-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-36053-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Aiguo Dai & John C. Fyfe & Shang-Ping Xie & Xingang Dai, 2015. "Decadal modulation of global surface temperature by internal climate variability," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(6), pages 555-559, June.
    2. Christopher W. Callahan & Chen Chen & Maria Rugenstein & Jonah Bloch-Johnson & Shuting Yang & Elisabeth J. Moyer, 2021. "Robust decrease in El Niño/Southern Oscillation amplitude under long-term warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(9), pages 752-757, September.
    3. Yu Liu & Kim M. Cobb & Huiming Song & Qiang Li & Ching-Yao Li & Takeshi Nakatsuka & Zhisheng An & Weijian Zhou & Qiufang Cai & Jinbao Li & Steven W. Leavitt & Changfeng Sun & Ruochen Mei & Chuan-Chou , 2017. "Recent enhancement of central Pacific El Niño variability relative to last eight centuries," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-8, August.
    4. Wenyu Zhou & Shang-Ping Xie & Da Yang, 2019. "Enhanced equatorial warming causes deep-tropical contraction and subtropical monsoon shift," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(11), pages 834-839, November.
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