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Anthropogenic forcing drives equatorward migration of heatwave locations across continents

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Feng

    (Beijing Normal University
    Beijing Normal University)

  • Jiaxin Li

    (Beijing Normal University)

  • Fei-Fei Jin

    (University of Hawaii at Mānoa
    University of Hawai’i at Mānoa)

  • Sen Zhao

    (University of Hawaii at Mānoa)

  • Jianping Li

    (Ocean University of China
    Laoshan Laboratory)

Abstract

Heatwaves have increased in frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial extent, posing a serious threat to socioeconomic development, natural ecosystems and human health worldwide. Assessments of trends in heatwave locations (HWL) have been hindered by the distinct regional characteristics of heatwaves across continents. Here we identify a consistent striking equatorward migration in the average latitudinal location of heatwaves occurrence over the period 1979−2023 based on various datasets. The trends of HWL in each hemisphere illustrate equatorward migration at a rate of approximately one degree of latitude per decade, which falls well into the extent of the estimated rate in the observed intertropical convergence zone contraction and the contrast in soil moisture between tropics and subtropics. Our analyses suggest that anthropogenic contribution plays a dominant role in the equatorward trends. The equatorward migration, which has already occurred and is projected to continue in future scenarios, highlights that the risk of damages and disasters caused by heatwaves may increase at lower latitudes.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Feng & Jiaxin Li & Fei-Fei Jin & Sen Zhao & Jianping Li, 2025. "Anthropogenic forcing drives equatorward migration of heatwave locations across continents," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-63558-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-63558-0
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