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The impact of extreme heat on lake warming in China

Author

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  • Weijia Wang

    (State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
    College of Nanjing, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Kun Shi

    (State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Xiwen Wang

    (State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
    School of Geography & Ocean Science, Nanjing University)

  • Yunlin Zhang

    (State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
    College of Nanjing, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Boqiang Qin

    (State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
    School of Geography & Ocean Science, Nanjing University)

  • Yibo Zhang

    (State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • R. Iestyn Woolway

    (Bangor University, Menai Bridge)

Abstract

Global lake ecosystems are subjected to an increased occurrence of heat extremes, yet their impact on lake warming remains poorly understood. In this study, we employed a hybrid physically-based/statistical model to assess the contribution of heat extremes to variations in surface water temperature of 2260 lakes in China from 1985 to 2022. Our study indicates that heat extremes are increasing at a rate of about 2.08 days/decade and an intensity of about 0.03 °C/ day·decade in China. The warming rate of lake surface water temperature decreases from 0.16 °C/decade to 0.13 °C/decade after removing heat extremes. Heat extremes exert a considerable influence on long-term lake surface temperature changes, contributing 36.5% of the warming trends within the studied lakes. Given the important influence of heat extremes on the mean warming of lake surface waters, it is imperative that they are adequately accounted for in climate impact studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Weijia Wang & Kun Shi & Xiwen Wang & Yunlin Zhang & Boqiang Qin & Yibo Zhang & R. Iestyn Woolway, 2024. "The impact of extreme heat on lake warming in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-7, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-44404-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-44404-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sebastiano Piccolroaz & R. Iestyn Woolway & Christopher J. Merchant, 2020. "Correction to: Global reconstruction of twentieth century lake surface water temperature reveals different warming trends depending on the climatic zone," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(3), pages 443-443, June.
    2. Aaron Till & Andrew L. Rypel & Andrew Bray & Samuel B. Fey, 2019. "Fish die-offs are concurrent with thermal extremes in north temperate lakes," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(8), pages 637-641, August.
    3. Mathis Loïc Messager & Bernhard Lehner & Günther Grill & Irena Nedeva & Oliver Schmitt, 2016. "Estimating the volume and age of water stored in global lakes using a geo-statistical approach," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 7(1), pages 1-11, December.
    4. R. Iestyn Woolway & Eleanor Jennings & Tom Shatwell & Malgorzata Golub & Don C. Pierson & Stephen C. Maberly, 2021. "Lake heatwaves under climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 589(7842), pages 402-407, January.
    5. Sebastiano Piccolroaz & R. Iestyn Woolway & Christopher J. Merchant, 2020. "Global reconstruction of twentieth century lake surface water temperature reveals different warming trends depending on the climatic zone," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(3), pages 427-442, June.
    6. S. E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick & S. C. Lewis, 2020. "Increasing trends in regional heatwaves," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-8, December.
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