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Disruption of ecological networks in lakes by climate change and nutrient fluctuations

Author

Listed:
  • Ewa Merz

    (Eawag: Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology)

  • Erik Saberski

    (University of California San Diego)

  • Luis J. Gilarranz

    (Eawag: Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology)

  • Peter D. F. Isles

    (Vermont Department of Environmental Conservation)

  • George Sugihara

    (University of California San Diego)

  • Christine Berger

    (Qualitaetsueberwachung)

  • Francesco Pomati

    (Eawag: Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology)

Abstract

Climate change interacts with local processes to threaten biodiversity by disrupting the complex network of ecological interactions. While changes in network interactions drastically affect ecosystems, how ecological networks respond to climate change, in particular warming and nutrient supply fluctuations, is largely unknown. Here, using an equation-free modelling approach on monthly plankton community data in ten Swiss lakes, we show that the number and strength of plankton community interactions fluctuate and respond nonlinearly to water temperature and phosphorus. While lakes show system-specific responses, warming generally reduces network interactions, particularly under high phosphate levels. This network reorganization shifts trophic control of food webs, leading to consumers being controlled by resources. Small grazers and cyanobacteria emerge as sensitive indicators of changes in plankton networks. By exposing the outcomes of a complex interplay between environmental drivers, our results provide tools for studying and advancing our understanding of how climate change impacts entire ecological communities.

Suggested Citation

  • Ewa Merz & Erik Saberski & Luis J. Gilarranz & Peter D. F. Isles & George Sugihara & Christine Berger & Francesco Pomati, 2023. "Disruption of ecological networks in lakes by climate change and nutrient fluctuations," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 13(4), pages 389-396, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:13:y:2023:i:4:d:10.1038_s41558-023-01615-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01615-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chih-hao Hsieh & Sarah M. Glaser & Andrew J. Lucas & George Sugihara, 2005. "Distinguishing random environmental fluctuations from ecological catastrophes for the North Pacific Ocean," Nature, Nature, vol. 435(7040), pages 336-340, May.
    2. Mieleitner, Johanna & Reichert, Peter, 2008. "Modelling functional groups of phytoplankton in three lakes of different trophic state," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 211(3), pages 279-291.
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    Cited by:

    1. Weijia Wang & Kun Shi & Xiwen Wang & Yunlin Zhang & Boqiang Qin & Yibo Zhang & R. Iestyn Woolway, 2024. "The impact of extreme heat on lake warming in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-7, December.

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