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Distinguishing random environmental fluctuations from ecological catastrophes for the North Pacific Ocean

Author

Listed:
  • Chih-hao Hsieh

    (University of California)

  • Sarah M. Glaser

    (University of California)

  • Andrew J. Lucas

    (University of California)

  • George Sugihara

    (University of California)

Abstract

An ocean on the brink Worries over sudden climate change and irreversible environmental change are rooted in the notion that complex natural systems might respond to change in a ‘nonlinear’ fashion: small changes might cause dramatic pathological behaviours in an ecosystem. Whether large-scale marine environments are balanced on a knife edge like this has been a matter of debate, but a new assessment of physical and biological data sources in the North Pacific shows that the biological variables show the ‘nonlinear’ behaviour that people are worried about. In practical terms, this suggests that a ‘precautionary’ approach should be taken to the management of marine ecosystems, by setting conservative fisheries quotas for instance.

Suggested Citation

  • Chih-hao Hsieh & Sarah M. Glaser & Andrew J. Lucas & George Sugihara, 2005. "Distinguishing random environmental fluctuations from ecological catastrophes for the North Pacific Ocean," Nature, Nature, vol. 435(7040), pages 336-340, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:435:y:2005:i:7040:d:10.1038_nature03553
    DOI: 10.1038/nature03553
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    1. De La Fuente, G. & Asnaghi, V. & Chiantore, M. & Thrush, S. & Povero, P. & Vassallo, P. & Petrillo, M. & Paoli, C., 2019. "The effect of Cystoseira canopy on the value of midlittoral habitats in NW Mediterranean, an emergy assessment," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 404(C), pages 1-11.
    2. Michael J Malick & Sean P Cox, 2016. "Regional-Scale Declines in Productivity of Pink and Chum Salmon Stocks in Western North America," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(1), pages 1-23, January.
    3. Moolenaar, Hanneke E. & Grasman, Johan & Selten, Frank M. & de Gee, Maarten, 2007. "Testing a method for analyzing the effect of parameter change in climate driven ecological systems," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 205(3), pages 289-300.
    4. Subbiah, Mohan & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2016. "Hedge fund allocation: Evaluating parametric and nonparametric forecasts using alternative portfolio construction techniques," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 189-201.
    5. Dost, Florian, 2015. "A non-linear causal network of marketing channel system structure," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 49-57.
    6. Ewa Merz & Erik Saberski & Luis J. Gilarranz & Peter D. F. Isles & George Sugihara & Christine Berger & Francesco Pomati, 2023. "Disruption of ecological networks in lakes by climate change and nutrient fluctuations," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 13(4), pages 389-396, April.
    7. Franz Hamilton & Alun L Lloyd & Kevin B Flores, 2017. "Hybrid modeling and prediction of dynamical systems," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(7), pages 1-20, July.
    8. Megrey, Bernard A. & Rose, Kenneth A. & Ito, Shin-ichi & Hay, Douglas E. & Werner, Francisco E. & Yamanaka, Yasuhiro & Aita, Maki Noguchi, 2007. "North Pacific basin-scale differences in lower and higher trophic level marine ecosystem responses to climate impacts using a nutrient-phytoplankton–zooplankton model coupled to a fish bioenergetics m," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 196-210.
    9. Grasman, Johan & van Nes, Egbert H. & Kersting, Kees, 2009. "Data-directed modelling of Daphnia dynamics in a long-term micro-ecosystem experiment," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(3), pages 343-350.
    10. Laura S Storch & Sarah M Glaser & Hao Ye & Andrew A Rosenberg, 2017. "Stock assessment and end-to-end ecosystem models alter dynamics of fisheries data," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(2), pages 1-11, February.
    11. Vishwesha Guttal & Srinivas Raghavendra & Nikunj Goel & Quentin Hoarau, 2016. "Lack of Critical Slowing Down Suggests that Financial Meltdowns Are Not Critical Transitions, yet Rising Variability Could Signal Systemic Risk," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(1), pages 1-20, January.
    12. Qinglei Li & Zuntao Fu & Naiming Yuan, 2015. "Beyond Benford's Law: Distinguishing Noise from Chaos," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(6), pages 1-11, June.
    13. Mario Sprovieri & Maurizio Ribera d’Alcalà & Patrick Roose & Aldo Drago & Karien De Cauwer & Federico Falcini & Inga Lips & Chiara Maggi & Aourell Mauffret & Jacek Tronczynski & Christina Zeri & Pier , 2021. "Science for Good Environmental Status: A European Joint Action to Support Marine Policy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-14, August.
    14. Yun Jian & Sonia Silvestri & Jeff Brown & Rick Hickman & Marco Marani, 2014. "The Temporal Spectrum of Adult Mosquito Population Fluctuations: Conceptual and Modeling Implications," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(12), pages 1-21, December.
    15. Manuel Mendoza-Carranza & Elisabet Ejarque & Leopold A J Nagelkerke, 2018. "Disentangling the complexity of tropical small-scale fisheries dynamics using supervised Self-Organizing Maps," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(5), pages 1-28, May.
    16. Alexander Maye & Chih-hao Hsieh & George Sugihara & Björn Brembs, 2007. "Order in Spontaneous Behavior," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 2(5), pages 1-14, May.

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