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North Pacific basin-scale differences in lower and higher trophic level marine ecosystem responses to climate impacts using a nutrient-phytoplankton–zooplankton model coupled to a fish bioenergetics model

Author

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  • Megrey, Bernard A.
  • Rose, Kenneth A.
  • Ito, Shin-ichi
  • Hay, Douglas E.
  • Werner, Francisco E.
  • Yamanaka, Yasuhiro
  • Aita, Maki Noguchi

Abstract

We present a modeling approach where we use one common model formulation of a 11 state variable lower trophic level model that includes two groups of phytoplankton, three groups of zooplankton, and representations of nitrogen and silicate embedded in a three-dimensional ocean general circulation model (OGCM) and forced with a common climate forcing. Results are applied to a fish bioenergetics model for two geographically distinct ocean regions off Japan including the Oyashio, mixed, and Kuroshio subregions and off California including the subarctic, transition and subtropical subregions. The model is applied to two fish species (Pacific saury: Cololabis saira and Pacific herring: Clupea harengus pallasi) with different life histories in each region and the influence of three different “regime shift” periods was explored. With this approach, we narrow the observed biological response and model dynamics to reflect local conditions and eliminate differences related to the model formulations in each region. In general, the trend in temperature was negatively correlated with trends in the zooplankton community. Out-of-phase herring growth trends were observed between the Japan and California regions (r=−0.259, p=0.02). In-phase growth trends between herring and saury were observed at the California region (r=0.61, p<0.01). We did note some evidence of a basin-scale PDO mode response. During 1980–1985, simulated saury and herring in both regions showed a consistent increase in weight-at-age. In the Oyashio subregion, temperature decreased and all three zooplankton groups increased beginning around 1980. The same pattern of a decrease in temperature and an increase in zooplankton densities was observed between 1980 and 1985 in the subarctic subregion of California. Results are discussed in the context of ecosystem-based fisheries management.

Suggested Citation

  • Megrey, Bernard A. & Rose, Kenneth A. & Ito, Shin-ichi & Hay, Douglas E. & Werner, Francisco E. & Yamanaka, Yasuhiro & Aita, Maki Noguchi, 2007. "North Pacific basin-scale differences in lower and higher trophic level marine ecosystem responses to climate impacts using a nutrient-phytoplankton–zooplankton model coupled to a fish bioenergetics m," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 196-210.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:202:y:2007:i:1:p:196-210
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2006.08.018
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    1. Kishi, Michio J. & Kashiwai, Makoto & Ware, Daniel M. & Megrey, Bernard A. & Eslinger, David L. & Werner, Francisco E. & Noguchi-Aita, Maki & Azumaya, Tomonori & Fujii, Masahiko & Hashimoto, Shinji & , 2007. "NEMURO—a lower trophic level model for the North Pacific marine ecosystem," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 12-25.
    2. Rose, Kenneth A. & Megrey, Bernard A. & Werner, Francisco E. & Ware, Dan M., 2007. "Calibration of the NEMURO nutrient–phytoplankton–zooplankton food web model to a coastal ecosystem: Evaluation of an automated calibration approach," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 38-51.
    3. Ito, Shin-Ichi & Megrey, Bernard A. & Kishi, Michio J. & Mukai, Daiki & Kurita, Yutaka & Ueno, Yasuhiro & Yamanaka, Yasuhiro, 2007. "On the interannual variability of the growth of Pacific saury (Cololabis saira): A simple 3-box model using NEMURO.FISH," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 174-183.
    4. Megrey, Bernard A. & Rose, Kenneth A. & Klumb, Robert A. & Hay, Douglas E. & Werner, Francisco E. & Eslinger, David L. & Smith, S. Lan, 2007. "A bioenergetics-based population dynamics model of Pacific herring (Clupea harengus pallasi) coupled to a lower trophic level nutrient–phytoplankton–zooplankton model: Description, calibration, and se," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 144-164.
    5. Mukai, Daiki & Kishi, Michio J. & Ito, Shin-ichi & Kurita, Yutaka, 2007. "The importance of spawning season on the growth of Pacific saury: A model-based study using NEMURO.FISH," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 165-173.
    6. Aita, Maki Noguchi & Yamanaka, Yasuhiro & Kishi, Michio J., 2007. "Interdecadal variation of the lower trophic ecosystem in the northern Pacific between 1948 and 2002, in a 3-D implementation of the NEMURO model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 81-94.
    7. Chih-hao Hsieh & Sarah M. Glaser & Andrew J. Lucas & George Sugihara, 2005. "Distinguishing random environmental fluctuations from ecological catastrophes for the North Pacific Ocean," Nature, Nature, vol. 435(7040), pages 336-340, May.
    8. Rose, Kenneth A. & Werner, Francisco E. & Megrey, Bernard A. & Aita, Maki Noguchi & Yamanaka, Yasuhiro & Hay, Douglas E. & Schweigert, Jake F. & Foster, Matthew Birch, 2007. "Simulated herring growth responses in the Northeastern Pacific to historic temperature and zooplankton conditions generated by the 3-dimensional NEMURO nutrient–phytoplankton–zooplankton model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 184-195.
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    1. Okunishi, Takeshi & Yamanaka, Yasuhiro & Ito, Shin-ichi, 2009. "A simulation model for Japanese sardine (Sardinops melanostictus) migrations in the western North Pacific," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(4), pages 462-479.
    2. Evans, K. & Young, J.W. & Nicol, S. & Kolody, D. & Allain, V. & Bell, J. & Brown, J.N. & Ganachaud, A. & Hobday, A.J. & Hunt, B. & Innes, J. & Gupta, A. Sen & van Sebille, E. & Kloser, R. & Patterson,, 2015. "Optimising fisheries management in relation to tuna catches in the western central Pacific Ocean: A review of research priorities and opportunities," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 94-104.
    3. Tews, Joerg & Ferguson, Michael A.D. & Fahrig, Lenore, 2007. "Potential net effects of climate change on High Arctic Peary caribou: Lessons from a spatially explicit simulation model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 207(2), pages 85-98.

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