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A bioenergetics-based population dynamics model of Pacific herring (Clupea harengus pallasi) coupled to a lower trophic level nutrient–phytoplankton–zooplankton model: Description, calibration, and sensitivity analysis

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  • Megrey, Bernard A.
  • Rose, Kenneth A.
  • Klumb, Robert A.
  • Hay, Douglas E.
  • Werner, Francisco E.
  • Eslinger, David L.
  • Smith, S. Lan

Abstract

We describe an approach to dynamically couple a fish bioenergetics-based population dynamics model to the NEMURO lower trophic level nutrient–phytoplankton–zooplankton model. The coupled models, denoted NEMURO.FISH and configured for Pacific herring (Clupea harengus pallasii) on the west coast of Vancouver Island, are capable of simulating the daily dynamics of the lower trophic levels and the daily average weight and numbers of individual herring in each of 10 age classes over multiple years. New recruits to the herring population are added each June based on either constant recruitment or dynamic recruitment generated from an environmental Ricker spawner–recruitment relationship. The dynamics of the three zooplankton groups in the NEMURO model determine the consumption rate of the herring; herring consumption affects the zooplankton, and egestion and excretion contribute to the nitrogen dynamics. NEMURO was previously calibrated to field data for the West Coast Vancouver Island. Thirty-year simulations of herring growth and population dynamics were performed that used repeated environmental conditions for the lower trophic levels of NEMURO and historical environmental variables for the herring spawner–recruit relationship. Herring dynamics were calibrated to the west coast of Vancouver Island such that the coupled models reasonably duplicated observed herring weights-at-age and total herring biomass. Additional 30-year simulations under constant recruitment with herring coupled and uncoupled from NEMURO clearly showed the effects of the feedback mechanism between the two models and also showed that herring have small to moderate effects on their prey. Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis showed the importance of feeding- and respiration-related parameters to predicted individual and population herring growth. The utility of the NEMURO.FISH framework for improving our understanding of climate change effects on marine ecosystem dynamics is discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Megrey, Bernard A. & Rose, Kenneth A. & Klumb, Robert A. & Hay, Douglas E. & Werner, Francisco E. & Eslinger, David L. & Smith, S. Lan, 2007. "A bioenergetics-based population dynamics model of Pacific herring (Clupea harengus pallasi) coupled to a lower trophic level nutrient–phytoplankton–zooplankton model: Description, calibration, and se," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 144-164.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:202:y:2007:i:1:p:144-164
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2006.08.020
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    1. Kishi, Michio J. & Kashiwai, Makoto & Ware, Daniel M. & Megrey, Bernard A. & Eslinger, David L. & Werner, Francisco E. & Noguchi-Aita, Maki & Azumaya, Tomonori & Fujii, Masahiko & Hashimoto, Shinji & , 2007. "NEMURO—a lower trophic level model for the North Pacific marine ecosystem," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 12-25.
    2. Rose, Kenneth A. & Megrey, Bernard A. & Werner, Francisco E. & Ware, Dan M., 2007. "Calibration of the NEMURO nutrient–phytoplankton–zooplankton food web model to a coastal ecosystem: Evaluation of an automated calibration approach," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 38-51.
    3. Yoshie, Naoki & Yamanaka, Yasuhiro & Rose, Kenneth A. & Eslinger, David L. & Ware, Daniel M. & Kishi, Michio J., 2007. "Parameter sensitivity study of the NEMURO lower trophic level marine ecosystem model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 26-37.
    4. Ito, Shin-Ichi & Megrey, Bernard A. & Kishi, Michio J. & Mukai, Daiki & Kurita, Yutaka & Ueno, Yasuhiro & Yamanaka, Yasuhiro, 2007. "On the interannual variability of the growth of Pacific saury (Cololabis saira): A simple 3-box model using NEMURO.FISH," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 174-183.
    5. Rose, Kenneth A. & Werner, Francisco E. & Megrey, Bernard A. & Aita, Maki Noguchi & Yamanaka, Yasuhiro & Hay, Douglas E. & Schweigert, Jake F. & Foster, Matthew Birch, 2007. "Simulated herring growth responses in the Northeastern Pacific to historic temperature and zooplankton conditions generated by the 3-dimensional NEMURO nutrient–phytoplankton–zooplankton model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 184-195.
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    2. Megrey, Bernard A. & Rose, Kenneth A. & Ito, Shin-ichi & Hay, Douglas E. & Werner, Francisco E. & Yamanaka, Yasuhiro & Aita, Maki Noguchi, 2007. "North Pacific basin-scale differences in lower and higher trophic level marine ecosystem responses to climate impacts using a nutrient-phytoplankton–zooplankton model coupled to a fish bioenergetics m," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 196-210.
    3. Xue, Huijie & Incze, Lewis & Xu, Danya & Wolff, Nicholas & Pettigrew, Neal, 2008. "Connectivity of lobster populations in the coastal Gulf of Maine," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 210(1), pages 193-211.
    4. Deslauriers, David & Heironimus, Laura B. & Chipps, Steven R., 2016. "Test of a foraging-bioenergetics model to evaluate growth dynamics of endangered pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus)," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 336(C), pages 1-12.
    5. Dalyander, P. Soupy & Cerco, Carl F., 2010. "Integration of a fish bioenergetics model into a spatially explicit water quality model: Application to menhaden in Chesapeake Bay," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(16), pages 1922-1933.
    6. Castellani, Marco & Våge, Selina & Strand, Espen & Thingstad, T. Frede & Giske, Jarl, 2013. "The Scaled Subspaces Method: A new trait-based approach to model communities of populations with largely inhomogeneous density," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 173-186.
    7. Kishi, Michio J. & Kashiwai, Makoto & Ware, Daniel M. & Megrey, Bernard A. & Eslinger, David L. & Werner, Francisco E. & Noguchi-Aita, Maki & Azumaya, Tomonori & Fujii, Masahiko & Hashimoto, Shinji & , 2007. "NEMURO—a lower trophic level model for the North Pacific marine ecosystem," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 12-25.
    8. Kakehi, Shigeho & Abo, Jun-ichi & Miyamoto, Hiroomi & Fuji, Taiki & Watanabe, Kazuyoshi & Yamashita, Hideyuki & Suyama, Satoshi, 2020. "Forecasting Pacific saury (Cololabis saira) fishing grounds off Japan using a migration model driven by an ocean circulation model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 431(C).
    9. Batchelder, Harold P. & Kashiwai, Makoto, 2007. "Ecosystem modeling with NEMURO within the PICES Climate Change and Carrying Capacity program," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 7-11.
    10. Gurkan, Zeren & Christensen, Asbjørn & Maar, Marie & Møller, Eva Friis & Madsen, Kristine Skovgaard & Munk, Peter & Mosegaard, Henrik, 2013. "Spatio-temporal dynamics of growth and survival of Lesser Sandeel early life-stages in the North Sea: Predictions from a coupled individual-based and hydrodynamic–biogeochemical model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 294-306.
    11. Frisk, C. & Andersen, K.H. & Temming, A. & Herrmann, J.P. & Madsen, K.S. & Kraus, G., 2015. "Environmental effects on sprat (Sprattus sprattus) physiology and growth at the distribution frontier: A bioenergetic modelling approach," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 299(C), pages 130-139.
    12. Hamza, Faseela & M, Anju & Valsala, Vinu & R, Smitha B., 2021. "A bioenergetics model for seasonal growth of Indian oil sardine (Sardinella longiceps) in the Indian west coast," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 456(C).
    13. Travers, M. & Shin, Y.-J. & Jennings, S. & Machu, E. & Huggett, J.A. & Field, J.G. & Cury, P.M., 2009. "Two-way coupling versus one-way forcing of plankton and fish models to predict ecosystem changes in the Benguela," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(21), pages 3089-3099.
    14. Werner, Francisco E. & Ito, Shin-Ichi & Megrey, Bernard A. & Kishi, Michio J., 2007. "Synthesis of the NEMURO model studies and future directions of marine ecosystem modeling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 211-223.
    15. Rose, Kenneth A. & Werner, Francisco E. & Megrey, Bernard A. & Aita, Maki Noguchi & Yamanaka, Yasuhiro & Hay, Douglas E. & Schweigert, Jake F. & Foster, Matthew Birch, 2007. "Simulated herring growth responses in the Northeastern Pacific to historic temperature and zooplankton conditions generated by the 3-dimensional NEMURO nutrient–phytoplankton–zooplankton model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 184-195.
    16. Yoshie, Naoki & Yamanaka, Yasuhiro & Rose, Kenneth A. & Eslinger, David L. & Ware, Daniel M. & Kishi, Michio J., 2007. "Parameter sensitivity study of the NEMURO lower trophic level marine ecosystem model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 26-37.
    17. Castellani, Marco & Rosland, Rune & Urtizberea, Agurtzane & Fiksen, Øyvind, 2013. "A mass-balanced pelagic ecosystem model with size-structured behaviourally adaptive zooplankton and fish," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 54-63.
    18. Kearney, Kelly A. & Stock, Charles & Aydin, Kerim & Sarmiento, Jorge L., 2012. "Coupling planktonic ecosystem and fisheries food web models for a pelagic ecosystem: Description and validation for the subarctic Pacific," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 237, pages 43-62.
    19. Ito, Shin-Ichi & Megrey, Bernard A. & Kishi, Michio J. & Mukai, Daiki & Kurita, Yutaka & Ueno, Yasuhiro & Yamanaka, Yasuhiro, 2007. "On the interannual variability of the growth of Pacific saury (Cololabis saira): A simple 3-box model using NEMURO.FISH," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 174-183.
    20. Martins, Irene & Colaço, Ana & Dando, Paul R. & Martins, Inês & Desbruyères, Daniel & Sarradin, Pierre-Marie & Marques, João Carlos & Serrão-Santos, Ricardo, 2008. "Size-dependent variations on the nutritional pathway of Bathymodiolus azoricus demonstrated by a C-flux model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 217(1), pages 59-71.
    21. Mukai, Daiki & Kishi, Michio J. & Ito, Shin-ichi & Kurita, Yutaka, 2007. "The importance of spawning season on the growth of Pacific saury: A model-based study using NEMURO.FISH," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 165-173.
    22. Hashioka, Taketo & Yamanaka, Yasuhiro, 2007. "Ecosystem change in the western North Pacific associated with global warming using 3D-NEMURO," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 95-104.
    23. Carroll, Rosemary W.H. & Warwick, John J., 2017. "The importance of dynamic mercury water column concentrations on body burdens in a planktivorous fish: A bioenergetic and mercury mass balance perspective," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 364(C), pages 66-76.
    24. Zouiten, Hala & Díaz, César Álvarez & Gómez, Andrés García & Cortezón, José Antonio Revilla & Alba, Javier García, 2013. "An advanced tool for eutrophication modeling in coastal lagoons: Application to the Victoria lagoon in the north of Spain," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 265(C), pages 99-113.
    25. Pethybridge, H. & Roos, D. & Loizeau, V. & Pecquerie, L. & Bacher, C., 2013. "Responses of European anchovy vital rates and population growth to environmental fluctuations: An individual-based modeling approach," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 370-383.

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