IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v431y2020ics0304380020302210.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting Pacific saury (Cololabis saira) fishing grounds off Japan using a migration model driven by an ocean circulation model

Author

Listed:
  • Kakehi, Shigeho
  • Abo, Jun-ichi
  • Miyamoto, Hiroomi
  • Fuji, Taiki
  • Watanabe, Kazuyoshi
  • Yamashita, Hideyuki
  • Suyama, Satoshi

Abstract

Pre-fishing season (June and July) Pacific saury Cololabis saira occur offshore, east of Japan, before migrating west to nearshore waters where they are exploited by Japanese fishers in the autumn (September–November). To forecast the location of these fishing grounds we develop a migration model using oceanographic (temperature and current velocity) and fisheries (pre-fishing Pacific saury distribution obtained from stock assessment surveys) data, and migration characteristics determined from fishery data analysis. We speculate that Pacific saury migrate seasonally, first north, staying within a certain temperature zone from May to July, then west, remaining within a preferred but gradually increasing temperature zone. We tune our model using hindcast calculation to reproduce actual fishing grounds around Japan. In July 2018 we forecast the locations of early Pacific saury fishing grounds from August to September. Our forecast fishing grounds were subsequently validated by actual positions of the fishing grounds. Our model successfully forecast the locations of early fishing grounds along the Kuril Islands archipelago, and forecast particles that reached an offshore region roughly predicted offshore fishing grounds. This model also identified Pacific saury migration route trajectories in detail, and that these two fishing grounds in 2018 were formed from geographically separated pre-fishing season shoals via different migration routes. We believe that applying our model will improve the efficiency of the Pacific saury fishery and fleet operation through savings in vessel fuel and time spent searching for shoals.

Suggested Citation

  • Kakehi, Shigeho & Abo, Jun-ichi & Miyamoto, Hiroomi & Fuji, Taiki & Watanabe, Kazuyoshi & Yamashita, Hideyuki & Suyama, Satoshi, 2020. "Forecasting Pacific saury (Cololabis saira) fishing grounds off Japan using a migration model driven by an ocean circulation model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 431(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:431:y:2020:i:c:s0304380020302210
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109150
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380020302210
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109150?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kishi, Michio J. & Kashiwai, Makoto & Ware, Daniel M. & Megrey, Bernard A. & Eslinger, David L. & Werner, Francisco E. & Noguchi-Aita, Maki & Azumaya, Tomonori & Fujii, Masahiko & Hashimoto, Shinji & , 2007. "NEMURO—a lower trophic level model for the North Pacific marine ecosystem," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 12-25.
    2. Mukai, Daiki & Kishi, Michio J. & Ito, Shin-ichi & Kurita, Yutaka, 2007. "The importance of spawning season on the growth of Pacific saury: A model-based study using NEMURO.FISH," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 165-173.
    3. Megrey, Bernard A. & Rose, Kenneth A. & Klumb, Robert A. & Hay, Douglas E. & Werner, Francisco E. & Eslinger, David L. & Smith, S. Lan, 2007. "A bioenergetics-based population dynamics model of Pacific herring (Clupea harengus pallasi) coupled to a lower trophic level nutrient–phytoplankton–zooplankton model: Description, calibration, and se," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 144-164.
    4. Okunishi, Takeshi & Yamanaka, Yasuhiro & Ito, Shin-ichi, 2009. "A simulation model for Japanese sardine (Sardinops melanostictus) migrations in the western North Pacific," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(4), pages 462-479.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Batchelder, Harold P. & Kashiwai, Makoto, 2007. "Ecosystem modeling with NEMURO within the PICES Climate Change and Carrying Capacity program," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 7-11.
    2. Hamza, Faseela & M, Anju & Valsala, Vinu & R, Smitha B., 2021. "A bioenergetics model for seasonal growth of Indian oil sardine (Sardinella longiceps) in the Indian west coast," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 456(C).
    3. Megrey, Bernard A. & Rose, Kenneth A. & Ito, Shin-ichi & Hay, Douglas E. & Werner, Francisco E. & Yamanaka, Yasuhiro & Aita, Maki Noguchi, 2007. "North Pacific basin-scale differences in lower and higher trophic level marine ecosystem responses to climate impacts using a nutrient-phytoplankton–zooplankton model coupled to a fish bioenergetics m," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 196-210.
    4. Werner, Francisco E. & Ito, Shin-Ichi & Megrey, Bernard A. & Kishi, Michio J., 2007. "Synthesis of the NEMURO model studies and future directions of marine ecosystem modeling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 211-223.
    5. Ito, Shin-Ichi & Megrey, Bernard A. & Kishi, Michio J. & Mukai, Daiki & Kurita, Yutaka & Ueno, Yasuhiro & Yamanaka, Yasuhiro, 2007. "On the interannual variability of the growth of Pacific saury (Cololabis saira): A simple 3-box model using NEMURO.FISH," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 174-183.
    6. Mukai, Daiki & Kishi, Michio J. & Ito, Shin-ichi & Kurita, Yutaka, 2007. "The importance of spawning season on the growth of Pacific saury: A model-based study using NEMURO.FISH," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 165-173.
    7. Xing, Lei & Zhang, Chongliang & Chen, Yong & Shin, Yunne-Jai & Verley, Philippe & Yu, Haiqing & Ren, Yiping, 2017. "An individual-based model for simulating the ecosystem dynamics of Jiaozhou Bay, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 360(C), pages 120-131.
    8. Yoshie, Naoki & Yamanaka, Yasuhiro & Rose, Kenneth A. & Eslinger, David L. & Ware, Daniel M. & Kishi, Michio J., 2007. "Parameter sensitivity study of the NEMURO lower trophic level marine ecosystem model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 26-37.
    9. Kearney, Kelly A. & Stock, Charles & Aydin, Kerim & Sarmiento, Jorge L., 2012. "Coupling planktonic ecosystem and fisheries food web models for a pelagic ecosystem: Description and validation for the subarctic Pacific," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 237, pages 43-62.
    10. Rose, Kenneth A. & Werner, Francisco E. & Megrey, Bernard A. & Aita, Maki Noguchi & Yamanaka, Yasuhiro & Hay, Douglas E. & Schweigert, Jake F. & Foster, Matthew Birch, 2007. "Simulated herring growth responses in the Northeastern Pacific to historic temperature and zooplankton conditions generated by the 3-dimensional NEMURO nutrient–phytoplankton–zooplankton model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 184-195.
    11. Libralato, Simone & Solidoro, Cosimo, 2009. "Bridging biogeochemical and food web models for an End-to-End representation of marine ecosystem dynamics: The Venice lagoon case study," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(21), pages 2960-2971.
    12. Hashioka, Taketo & Yamanaka, Yasuhiro, 2007. "Ecosystem change in the western North Pacific associated with global warming using 3D-NEMURO," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 95-104.
    13. Xue, Huijie & Incze, Lewis & Xu, Danya & Wolff, Nicholas & Pettigrew, Neal, 2008. "Connectivity of lobster populations in the coastal Gulf of Maine," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 210(1), pages 193-211.
    14. Zouiten, Hala & Díaz, César Álvarez & Gómez, Andrés García & Cortezón, José Antonio Revilla & Alba, Javier García, 2013. "An advanced tool for eutrophication modeling in coastal lagoons: Application to the Victoria lagoon in the north of Spain," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 265(C), pages 99-113.
    15. Watkins, Katherine Shepard & Rose, Kenneth A., 2017. "Simulating individual-based movement in dynamic environments," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 356(C), pages 59-72.
    16. Frisk, C. & Andersen, K.H. & Temming, A. & Herrmann, J.P. & Madsen, K.S. & Kraus, G., 2015. "Environmental effects on sprat (Sprattus sprattus) physiology and growth at the distribution frontier: A bioenergetic modelling approach," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 299(C), pages 130-139.
    17. Terui, Takeshi & Kishi, Michio J., 2008. "Population dynamics model of Copepoda (Neocalanus cristatus) in the northwestern subarctic Pacific," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 215(1), pages 77-88.
    18. Brewin, Robert J.W. & Sathyendranath, Shubha & Hirata, Takafumi & Lavender, Samantha J. & Barciela, Rosa M. & Hardman-Mountford, Nick J., 2010. "A three-component model of phytoplankton size class for the Atlantic Ocean," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(11), pages 1472-1483.
    19. Fujii, Masahiko & Yamanaka, Yasuhiro & Nojiri, Yukihiro & Kishi, Michio J. & Chai, Fei, 2007. "Comparison of seasonal characteristics in biogeochemistry among the subarctic North Pacific stations described with a NEMURO-based marine ecosystem model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 52-67.
    20. McLane, Adam J. & Semeniuk, Christina & McDermid, Gregory J. & Marceau, Danielle J., 2011. "The role of agent-based models in wildlife ecology and management," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(8), pages 1544-1556.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:431:y:2020:i:c:s0304380020302210. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.