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Global reconstruction of twentieth century lake surface water temperature reveals different warming trends depending on the climatic zone

Author

Listed:
  • Sebastiano Piccolroaz

    (Independent Researcher
    Free University of Bolzano)

  • R. Iestyn Woolway

    (Dundalk Institute of Technology)

  • Christopher J. Merchant

    (University of Reading
    University of Reading)

Abstract

Lake surface water temperatures (LSWTs) are sensitive to climate change, but previous studies have typically focused on temperatures from only the last few decades. Thus, while there is good appreciation of LSWT warming in recent decades, our understanding of longer-term temperature change is comparatively limited. In this study, we use a mechanistically based open-source model (air2water), driven by air temperature from a state-of-the-art global atmospheric reanalysis (ERA-20C) and calibrated with satellite-derived LSWT observations (ARC-Lake v3), to investigate the long-term change in LSWT worldwide. The predictive ability of the model is tested across 606 lakes, with 91% of the lakes showing a daily root mean square error smaller than 1.5 °C. Model performance was better at mid-latitudes and decreased towards the equator. The results illustrated highly variable mean annual LSWT trends during the twentieth century and across climatic regions. Substantial warming is evident after ~ 1980 and the most responsive lakes to climate change are located in the temperate regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastiano Piccolroaz & R. Iestyn Woolway & Christopher J. Merchant, 2020. "Global reconstruction of twentieth century lake surface water temperature reveals different warming trends depending on the climatic zone," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(3), pages 427-442, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:160:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-020-02663-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02663-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Read, Jordan S. & Winslow, Luke A. & Hansen, Gretchen J.A. & Van Den Hoek, Jamon & Hanson, Paul C. & Bruce, Louise C. & Markfort, Corey D., 2014. "Simulating 2368 temperate lakes reveals weak coherence in stratification phenology," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 291(C), pages 142-150.
    2. Martin Schmid & Stefan Hunziker & Alfred Wüest, 2014. "Lake surface temperatures in a changing climate: a global sensitivity analysis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 124(1), pages 301-315, May.
    3. Sebastiano Piccolroaz & Marco Toffolon, 2018. "The fate of Lake Baikal: how climate change may alter deep ventilation in the largest lake on Earth," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 150(3), pages 181-194, October.
    4. Stephen L Katz & Stephanie E Hampton & Lyubov R Izmest'eva & Marianne V Moore, 2011. "Influence of Long-Distance Climate Teleconnection on Seasonality of Water Temperature in the World's Largest Lake - Lake Baikal, Siberia," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(2), pages 1-10, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jian Zhou & Peter R. Leavitt & Kevin C. Rose & Xiwen Wang & Yibo Zhang & Kun Shi & Boqiang Qin, 2023. "Controls of thermal response of temperate lakes to atmospheric warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    2. Martin T. Dokulil & Elvira Eyto & Stephen C. Maberly & Linda May & Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer & R. Iestyn Woolway, 2021. "Increasing maximum lake surface temperature under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(3), pages 1-17, April.
    3. Weijia Wang & Kun Shi & Xiwen Wang & Yunlin Zhang & Boqiang Qin & Yibo Zhang & R. Iestyn Woolway, 2024. "The impact of extreme heat on lake warming in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-7, December.
    4. Elhabashy, Ahmed & Li, Jing & Sokolova, Ekaterina, 2023. "Water quality modeling of a eutrophic drinking water source: Impact of future climate on Cyanobacterial blooms," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 477(C).

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