IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v129y2015i1p295-305.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Sensitivity of lake thermal and mixing dynamics to climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Jonathan Butcher
  • Daniel Nover
  • Thomas Johnson
  • Christopher Clark

Abstract

Warming-induced changes in lake thermal and mixing regimes present risks to water quality and ecosystem services provided by U.S. lakes and reservoirs. Modulation of responses by different physical and hydroclimatic settings are not well understood. We explore the potential effects of climate change on 27 lake “archetypes” representative of a range of lakes and reservoirs occurring throughout the U.S. Archetypes are based on different combinations of depth, surface area, and water clarity. LISSS, a one-dimensional dynamic thermal simulation model, is applied to assess lake response to multiple mid-21st century change scenarios applied to nine baseline climate series from different hydroclimatic regions of the U.S. Results show surface water temperature increases of about 77 % of increase in average air temperature change. Bottom temperature changes are less (around 30 %) for deep lakes and in regions that maintain mid-winter air temperatures below freezing. Significant decreases in length of ice cover are projected, and the extent and strength of stratification will increase throughout the U.S., with systematic differences associated with depth, surface area, and clarity. These projected responses suggest a range of future challenges that lake managers are likely to face. Changes in thermal and mixing dynamics suggest increased risk of summer hypoxic conditions and cyanobacterial blooms. Increased water temperatures above the summer thermocline could be a problem for cold water fisheries management in many lakes. Climate-induced changes in water balance and mass inputs of nutrients may further exacerbate the vulnerability of lakes to climate change. Copyright The Author(s) 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan Butcher & Daniel Nover & Thomas Johnson & Christopher Clark, 2015. "Sensitivity of lake thermal and mixing dynamics to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 129(1), pages 295-305, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:129:y:2015:i:1:p:295-305
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1326-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10584-015-1326-1
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-015-1326-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin Schmid & Stefan Hunziker & Alfred Wüest, 2014. "Lake surface temperatures in a changing climate: a global sensitivity analysis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 124(1), pages 301-315, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Farrell, Kaitlin J. & Ward, Nicole K. & Krinos, Arianna I. & Hanson, Paul C. & Daneshmand, Vahid & Figueiredo, Renato J. & Carey, Cayelan C., 2020. "Ecosystem-scale nutrient cycling responses to increasing air temperatures vary with lake trophic state," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 430(C).
    2. Shahram Missaghi & Miki Hondzo & William Herb, 2017. "Prediction of lake water temperature, dissolved oxygen, and fish habitat under changing climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(4), pages 747-757, April.
    3. Sebastiano Piccolroaz & Marco Toffolon, 2018. "The fate of Lake Baikal: how climate change may alter deep ventilation in the largest lake on Earth," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 150(3), pages 181-194, October.
    4. Fang Yang & Weiying Feng & Leppäranta Matti & Yu Yang & Ioanna Merkouriadi & Rui Cen & Yangwei Bai & Changyou Li & Haiqing Liao, 2020. "Simulation and Seasonal Characteristics of the Intra-Annual Heat Exchange Process in a Shallow Ice-Covered Lake," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-17, September.
    5. Ratté-Fortin, Claudie & Chokmani, Karem & El Alem, Anas & Laurion, Isabelle, 2022. "A regional model to predict the occurrence of natural events: Application to phytoplankton blooms in continental waterbodies," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 473(C).
    6. Shabnam Salehi & Mojtaba Ardestani, 2024. "Investigating Changes of Water Quality in Reservoirs based on Flood and Inflow Fluctuations," Papers 2403.05671, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
    7. Jian Zhou & Peter R. Leavitt & Kevin C. Rose & Xiwen Wang & Yibo Zhang & Kun Shi & Boqiang Qin, 2023. "Controls of thermal response of temperate lakes to atmospheric warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    8. Laura Melo Vieira Soares & Maria Calijuri & Talita Fernanda Silva & Evlyn Marcia Leão Novo, 2021. "Climate change enhances deepwater warming of subtropical reservoirs: evidence from hydrodynamic modelling," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 1-19, May.
    9. Firoozeh Azadi & Parisa-Sadat Ashofteh & Hugo A. Loáiciga, 2019. "Reservoir Water-Quality Projections under Climate-Change Conditions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(1), pages 401-421, January.
    10. R. Iestyn Woolway, 2023. "The pace of shifting seasons in lakes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jian Zhou & Peter R. Leavitt & Kevin C. Rose & Xiwen Wang & Yibo Zhang & Kun Shi & Boqiang Qin, 2023. "Controls of thermal response of temperate lakes to atmospheric warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    2. R. Iestyn Woolway & John H. Simpson & David Spiby & Heidrun Feuchtmayr & Ben Powell & Stephen C. Maberly, 2018. "Physical and chemical impacts of a major storm on a temperate lake: a taste of things to come?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(2), pages 333-347, November.
    3. Ulrike Gabriele Kobler & Alfred Wüest & Martin Schmid, 2019. "Combined effects of pumped-storage operation and climate change on thermal structure and water quality," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 152(3), pages 413-429, March.
    4. R. Iestyn Woolway & Martin T. Dokulil & Wlodzimierz Marszelewski & Martin Schmid & Damien Bouffard & Christopher J. Merchant, 2017. "Warming of Central European lakes and their response to the 1980s climate regime shift," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 142(3), pages 505-520, June.
    5. Sebastiano Piccolroaz & R. Iestyn Woolway & Christopher J. Merchant, 2020. "Global reconstruction of twentieth century lake surface water temperature reveals different warming trends depending on the climatic zone," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(3), pages 427-442, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:129:y:2015:i:1:p:295-305. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.