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Simulating 2368 temperate lakes reveals weak coherence in stratification phenology

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  • Read, Jordan S.
  • Winslow, Luke A.
  • Hansen, Gretchen J.A.
  • Van Den Hoek, Jamon
  • Hanson, Paul C.
  • Bruce, Louise C.
  • Markfort, Corey D.

Abstract

Changes in water temperatures resulting from climate warming can alter the structure and function of aquatic ecosystems. Lake-specific physical characteristics may play a role in mediating individual lake responses to climate. Past mechanistic studies of lake–climate interactions have simulated generic lake classes at large spatial scales or performed detailed analyses of small numbers of real lakes. Understanding the diversity of lake responses to climate change across landscapes requires a hybrid approach that couples site-specific lake characteristics with broad-scale environmental drivers. This study provides a substantial advancement in lake ecosystem modeling by combining open-source tools with freely available continental-scale data to mechanistically model daily temperatures for 2368 Wisconsin lakes over three decades (1979–2011). The model accurately predicted observed surface layer temperatures (RMSE: 1.74°C) and the presence/absence of stratification (81.1% agreement). Among-lake coherence was strong for surface temperatures and weak for the timing of stratification, suggesting individual lake characteristics mediate some – but not all – ecologically relevant lake responses to climate.

Suggested Citation

  • Read, Jordan S. & Winslow, Luke A. & Hansen, Gretchen J.A. & Van Den Hoek, Jamon & Hanson, Paul C. & Bruce, Louise C. & Markfort, Corey D., 2014. "Simulating 2368 temperate lakes reveals weak coherence in stratification phenology," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 291(C), pages 142-150.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:291:y:2014:i:c:p:142-150
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.07.029
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michelle Palmer & Norman Yan & Keith Somers, 2014. "Climate change drives coherent trends in physics and oxygen content in North American lakes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 124(1), pages 285-299, May.
    2. Weinberger, Stefan & Vetter, Mark, 2012. "Using the hydrodynamic model DYRESM based on results of a regional climate model to estimate water temperature changes at Lake Ammersee," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 244(C), pages 38-48.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sebastiano Piccolroaz & R. Iestyn Woolway & Christopher J. Merchant, 2020. "Global reconstruction of twentieth century lake surface water temperature reveals different warming trends depending on the climatic zone," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(3), pages 427-442, June.
    2. Snortheim, Craig A. & Hanson, Paul C. & McMahon, Katherine D. & Read, Jordan S. & Carey, Cayelan C. & Dugan, Hilary A., 2017. "Meteorological drivers of hypolimnetic anoxia in a eutrophic, north temperate lake," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 343(C), pages 39-53.
    3. Laura Melo Vieira Soares & Maria Calijuri & Talita Fernanda Silva & Evlyn Marcia Leão Novo, 2021. "Climate change enhances deepwater warming of subtropical reservoirs: evidence from hydrodynamic modelling," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 1-19, May.
    4. Soares, L.M.V. & Calijuri, M.C., 2021. "Sensitivity and identifiability analyses of parameters for water quality modeling of subtropical reservoirs," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 458(C).

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